AJARE《澳大利亚农业和资源经济学》2026年第70卷第1期目录及摘要

全文链接：

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14678489/2026/70/1

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Demand Shocks From the Gas Turbine Fleet in Australia's National Electricity Market

澳大利亚国家电力市场燃气轮机车队的需求冲击

Paul Simshauser, Joel Gilmore

Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations and Emissions: Evidence From African Countries

非对称的商业周期波动与排放：来自非洲国家的证据

Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo

Monetary Accounting of Cultural Ecosystem Services: Recreational Fishing in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

文化生态系统服务的货币核算：澳大利亚默里-达令盆地的休闲钓鱼

Gabriela Scheufele, Sean Pascoe, Rachel Nichols, Greg Smith, Alistair McIlgorm

Foreign Direct Investment and Policy Stability of Environmental Regulations in Polluting Sectors

外国直接投资与污染行业环境法规政策稳定性

Gregmar I. Galinato, You Zhou, Xin Zhao

Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Aotearoa–New Zealand's Dairy Sector

评估气候变化对新西兰乳制品行业的经济影响

Anita Wreford, Meike Guenther, John T Saunders

Paddy Cooperatives and Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption: A Case Study in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

稻谷合作社与气候智能农业采纳：越南湄公河三角洲案例研究

Le Canh Bich Tho, Chieko Umetsu

Managing Pesticide Resistance: Input-Oriented Versus Result-Oriented Tax Systems

管理农药抗性：以投入为导向与以结果为导向的税制

Safiatou Barro, Sophie Legras, Elsa Martin

Access to Credit and Mechanisation Service Expenditure: An Analysis Considering Access, Sources, Purposes and Amounts of Credit

信贷准入与机械化服务支出：考察信贷的准入、来源、目的及金额

Xiance Sang, Wanglin Ma, Aya Suzuki, Hepei Zhang

Impact of the National Rural E-Commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy on Rural Labour Force Participation

国家农村电子商务综合示范政策对农村劳动力参与的影响

Shixian Zhai, Peng Wang, Chao Peng

Effects of Alternate Wetting and Drying on Water Savings and Rice Yields in The Philippines

交替湿润和晾干对菲律宾节水和稻米产量的影响

Soumi Chandra, Roderick M. Rejesus, Jose M. Yorobe Jr

Linking the ICRISAT Genebank to Poverty Reduction and Welfare in Malawi

将ICRISAT基因库与马拉维的减贫和福利相结合

Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong, Melinda Smale, Nelissa Jamora, Vania Azevedo

Youth Entrepreneurship in the Agribusiness Sector in Tanzania

坦桑尼亚农业企业部门的青年创业

Min Bai, Yohane Kitwima Magembe

Analysis of Japanese Beef Imports: Exploring Source and Primal Differentiation and Their Implications for Tariff Liberalisation

日本牛肉进口分析：探讨源头与原始区分及其对关税自由化的影响

Andrew Muhammad, Md Deluair Hossen, Karen Lewis DeLong

How Do Stated Attribute Cut-Off Values Influence Attention and Subsequent Willingness to Pay? Evidence From an Eye-Tracking Food Choice Experiment

明确的属性界限值如何影响注意力和随后的支付意愿？眼动追踪食物选择实验的证据

Carola Grebitus, Mohammed Hussen Alemu

Willingness-to-Pay for Safe Vegetables: A Comparative Analysis Between Wet Market and Supermarket Shoppers in Urban Cambodia

为安全蔬菜支付的意愿：柬埔寨城市湿货市场与超市购物者的比较分析

Mercy Mwambi, Pepijn Schreinemachers, Naphtal Habiyaremye, Lyda Hok, Uon Bonnarith, Paul Ebner

Calorie Labelling of Delivered Meals for Healthier Consumer Choices

配送餐食的热量标签，促进更健康的消费者选择

Dan Wang, Wuyang Hu, Jian Li, Ping Qing

Firm Strategic Labelling and Chinese Consumers' Preference for Carbonated Beverages: The Role of Healthfulness and Taste

企业战略标签与中国消费者对碳酸饮料的偏好：健康与口感的作用

Yue Yang, Wuyang Hu, Yulian Ding, Kevin Chen, Jia Du

Demand Shocks From the Gas Turbine Fleet in Australia's National Electricity Market

Paul Simshauser, Joel Gilmore

Abstract:The long-run task of Australian power system planners is to identify the structural adjustment pathway associated with retiring the National Electricity Market's (NEM) coal fleet. System planning models seek to do this at minimum cost subject to a reliability constraint. This involves the deployment of low-cost intermittent wind and solar resources with a mix of dispatchable, flexible ‘firming’ assets. Coal's energy-producing role is thus replaced by renewables, and firming duties by short-duration batteries, intermediate duration pumped hydro and the last line of defence—gas turbines. As it turns out, the mix of firming assets is crucial. In this article, we examine 12 (anonymised) electricity market model forecasts in the post-coal era and find all have a surprisingly heavy reliance on gas turbines during critical event winter days. Using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the east Australian gas market, we test the severity of what appear to be demand shocks from an emergent gas turbine fleet. The episodic demand shocks present as intractable, particularly if batteries and pumped hydro plant are ‘underweight’ within the aggregate generating portfolio. Adequate time is available for policymakers to respond in an orderly manner.

摘要：澳大利亚电力系统规划者的长期任务是确定与国家电力市场（NEM）煤炭车队退役相关的结构调整路径。系统规划模型旨在以最低成本完成这一目标，同时在可靠性约束下实现。这涉及部署低成本间歇性风能和太阳能资源，并结合可调度、灵活的“巩固”资产。因此，煤炭的发电角色被可再生能源取代，巩固职能则由短时电池、中期抽水电和最后防线——燃气轮机取代。事实证明，巩固资产的组合至关重要。本文分析了12个（匿名）后煤炭时代的电力市场模型预测，发现它们在关键事件冬季对燃气轮机的依赖出人意料地高。我们利用东澳大利亚天然气市场的动态偏平衡模型，测试了来自新兴燃气轮机车队的疑似需求冲击的严重程度。间歇性的需求冲击显得难以解决，尤其是在电池和抽水水电厂在总发电组合中“权重不足”时。政策制定者有足够时间有序地做出反应。

Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations and Emissions: Evidence From African Countries

Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo

Abstract:This study examines the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the business cycle, which is important for environmental policy, given the potential conflict between environmental and economic growth objectives, especially in developing countries. Using a sample of 14 West and Central African countries, we implement a panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (PNARDL) model on data from 1985 to 2020. The estimated coefficients indicate the existence of a long-run asymmetric relationship between emissions and the business cycle. We also find unidirectional causality between periods of recession and CO2, asymmetric bidirectional causality between periods of expansion and CH4 and no Granger causality between business cycles and N2O. From a decision-making perspective, this study suggests an incentive for virtuous behaviour of the population towards the environment, hybrid environmental policies such as green monetary policies and carbon taxes.

摘要：本研究探讨了温室气体排放与经济周期的关联性，这对环境政策具有重要意义——鉴于环境保护与经济增长目标之间可能存在的冲突，尤其在发展中国家。我们选取14个西非和中非国家作为样本，运用面板非线性自回归分布滞后（PNARDL）模型对1985至2020年的数据进行分析。估计系数表明排放量与经济周期存在长期不对称关系。我们还发现：经济衰退期与二氧化碳排放呈单向因果关系；经济扩张期与甲烷排放存在不对称双向因果关系；而经济周期与一氧化二氮之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。从决策角度看，本研究表明应激励民众采取有益环境的良性行为，推行绿色货币政策与碳税等混合型环境政策。

Monetary Accounting of Cultural Ecosystem Services: Recreational Fishing in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Gabriela Scheufele, Sean Pascoe, Rachel Nichols, Greg Smith, Alistair McIlgorm

Abstract:Recreational-related ecosystem services are culturally and economically significant activities that involve the direct interaction between people and the environment. In this study, we focus on cultural ecosystem services relating to recreational fishing—that is, the direct experiential benefits to individuals and communities associated with recreational fishing. Although monetary valuations of recreational fishing (using welfare values) are well established, their integration into ecosystem accounts remains limited. Ecosystem accounts require exchange values—values that the ecosystem service may realise if a market for such services existed. This paper addresses that gap by developing monetary ecosystem accounts for recreational fishing in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia, using the System of Environmental Economic Accounting—Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) framework. We apply the simulated exchange value (SEV) method to estimate accounting values consistent with SEEA EA and complement these with welfare values to provide a more comprehensive view of the benefits derived from recreational fishing. The study presents supply and use tables and auxiliary accounts. As such, it contributes to a small but growing set of examples that can be used to guide future ecosystem account development for recreational fishing as well as other recreational-related ecosystem services.

摘要：与娱乐相关的生态系统服务是具有文化和经济意义的活动，涉及人与环境之间的直接互动。本研究重点关注与休闲钓鱼相关的文化生态系统服务——即休闲钓鱼对个人和社区的直接体验益处。尽管娱乐性捕鱼（基于福利价值）的货币估值已成熟，但其融入生态系统账户的程度仍然有限。生态系统账户需要交换价值——如果存在此类服务市场，生态系统服务可能会实现的价值。本文通过利用环境经济核算系统（SEEA EA）框架，在澳大利亚默里-达令流域（MDB）开发休闲捕鱼的货币生态系统账户，弥补这一空白。我们采用模拟汇率（SEV）方法估算与SEEA EA相符的会计价值，并辅以福利值，提供更全面的休闲钓鱼收益视图。研究展示了供应和使用表及辅助账户。因此，它为未来休闲钓鱼及其他休闲相关生态系统服务的生态系统账户开发提供了少量但不断增长的范例。

Foreign Direct Investment and Policy Stability of Environmental Regulations in Polluting Sectors

Gregmar I. Galinato, You Zhou, Xin Zhao

Abstract:Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a significant source of economic growth. Two important factors for attracting FDI are endogenously determined environmental policies and domestic policy stability, which we define as the ability of policymakers to continue established policies. We contribute to the literature by investigating the welfare implications of attracting FDI in a polluting sector where a government chooses a pollution tax given a policy stability level. We modify Helpman et al.'s (2004) FDI model with heterogeneous firms to determine the optimal pollution taxes and the welfare implications with or without FDI. Our model includes a heterogeneous polluting sector, a homogeneous non-polluting sector, consumers negatively affected by pollution, and a policymaker who has a positive probability of being removed from office. We find that the pollution tax is higher when the polluting sector opens to FDI across all policy stability levels compared to the closed sector case. The pollution tax rate is reduced when the policy stability level increases. Welfare is generally higher when not allowing FDI in the polluting sector. The welfare loss due to uncertainty is reduced as the policy stability level increases because we approach the socially optimal pollution tax level. The difference in realised welfare between the closed and open FDI polluting sector cases is largest when there is low marginal pollution damage, high foreign entry cost, or a high elasticity of substitution.

摘要：外国直接投资（FDI）是经济增长的重要来源。吸引外国直接投资的两个重要因素是内生决定的环境政策和国内政策稳定性，我们定义为政策制定者继续制定既定政策的能力。我们通过研究吸引外国直接投资（FDI）在污染行业中，政府在政策稳定性水平下选择污染税的福利影响，为文献做出贡献。我们修改Helpman等人（2004）的FDI模型，采用异质企业，以确定有无FDI的最佳污染税及其福利影响。我们的模型包括一个异质污染部门、一个同质的非污染部门、受污染负面影响的消费者，以及一个有正概率被免职的政策制定者。我们发现，当污染部门在所有政策稳定性水平下对外商直接投资开放时，污染税比封闭部门更高。当政策稳定性水平提高时，污染税率会降低。当不允许外国直接投资（FDI）进入污染行业时，福利通常更高。随着政策稳定性的提升，由于我们接近社会最优的污染税水平，不确定性带来的福利损失会减少。当边际污染损害低、外国进入成本高或替代弹性高时，封闭式与开放式FDI污染部门案例之间的实现福利差异最大。

Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Aotearoa–New Zealand's Dairy Sector

Anita Wreford, Meike Guenther, John T Saunders

Abstract:This study examines the economic impacts of climate change on Aotearoa-New Zealand's (A-NZ) dairy sector, a critical contributor to the nation's GDP and global agricultural trade. Using a combination of biophysical and economic modelling, including the Dairy Sector Pathways (DSP) model and a multi-country partial equilibrium model (LTEM), the research evaluates the sector's response under various gradual climate change and extreme event scenarios. Results indicate that climate change will generally have a negative economic impact on the A-NZ dairy sector, with producer returns decreasing as global temperatures rise. However, scenarios involving global heat stress show potential for higher revenues due to increased global dairy prices offsetting local production declines. Adaptation strategies, like changes in pasture and feed management, reduce some impacts, but their effectiveness diminishes under severe climate scenarios. Extreme events, such as frequent droughts, exacerbate losses, reducing GDP contributions from dairy by up to 32% by the century's end. This comprehensive assessment underscores the importance of integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard economic stability and enhance resilience in the dairy industry.

摘要：本研究考察气候变化对新西兰乳制品行业的经济影响，该行业是该国GDP和全球农业贸易的重要贡献者。结合生物物理和经济模型，包括乳制品行业路径（DSP）模型和多国部分均衡模型（LTEM），研究评估了该行业在多种渐进气候变化和极端事件情景下的应对。结果表明，气候变化通常会对新西兰乳制品行业产生负面经济影响，随着全球气温上升，生产者回报下降。然而，涉及全球高温应激情景显示，由于全球乳制品价格上涨抵消本地产量下降，有望带来更高的收入。调整策略，如牧场和饲料管理的改变，可以减轻部分影响，但在严峻气候情景下其效果会减弱。极端事件如频繁干旱会加剧损失，到本世纪末乳制品对GDP的贡献可减少多达32%。这一综合评估强调了整合适应和缓解策略以维护经济稳定和增强乳制品行业韧性的重要性。

Paddy Cooperatives and Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption: A Case Study in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Le Canh Bich Tho, Chieko Umetsu

Abstract:Agricultural cooperatives in Vietnam help smallholders improve economic benefits and support farmers adapt to external shocks. Various policies have been implemented in Vietnam to develop agricultural cooperatives. The climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach is integral to the promotion of sustainable agriculture. However, whether cooperatives facilitate households' adoption of CSA technologies remains unclear. This study examines how paddy farms' participation in cooperatives affects their CSA adoption. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to assess the influence of cooperatives on the adoption of climate-smart agriculture. The study's key results suggest that participation in CSA training and location in coastal provinces positively influence engagement in cooperatives. In contrast, cooperative membership is negatively affected by farming plots and farmer association membership. PSM indicates that the role of cooperatives in advancing CSA adoption becomes significant when the intensity of technical support increases from 1.4 to 2.1 cropping seasons. Cooperative membership has heterogeneous effects across farm and household attributes. The effects are greater on farms with a production scale of < 2 ha, literate household heads and those that do not engage in off-farm activities. To enhance how cooperatives support farmers adopting CSA, they should focus on training classes and facilitate farmland accumulation.

摘要：越南的农业合作社帮助小农户提升经济效益，并支持农民适应外部冲击。越南实施了多项政策以发展农业合作社。气候智能农业（CSA）方法对于推动可持续农业至关重要。然而，合作社是否促进家庭采用CSA技术尚不明确。本研究考察稻农参与合作社如何影响其CSA的采用情况。我们使用倾向评分匹配（PSM）来评估合作社对气候智能农业采纳的影响。研究的关键结果表明，参与CSA培训以及位于沿海省份的选址对合作社的参与度有积极影响。相比之下，合作社会员资格则因农田和农民协会会员资格而受到负面影响。PSM指出，当技术支持强度从1.4年增加到2.1年时，合作社在推动CSA采纳中的作用变得显著。合作社成员在农户属性中具有异质性影响。这种影响在生产规模为<公顷的农场、识字户主以及不从事农场外活动的农场更为显著。为了加强合作社支持采用CSA的农民，应重点开展培训课程并促进农田积累。

Managing Pesticide Resistance: Input-Oriented Versus Result-Oriented Tax Systems

Safiatou Barro, Sophie Legras, Elsa Martin

Abstract:Pesticide resistance is a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly worrying. Heavy reliance on pesticides in the agricultural sector is at the core of this problem. In this paper, we analyse how farmers' pest control strategies can reduce pesticide resistance. We show that Integrated Pest Management is effective in limiting the growth of pesticide resistance. However, because one farmer's choices affect those of their neighbours, externalities remain and public policies are needed. We analyse two tax systems where one is polluting input-oriented and the other is result-oriented. We derive conditions under which both tax systems lead to socially optimal strategies. We show that a result-oriented scheme needs less information on farmers' time preferences.

摘要：农药抗性是一个日益令人担忧的现象。农业部门对农药的高度依赖是这一问题的核心。本文分析了农民的害虫防治策略如何降低农药抗性。我们证明综合害虫管理在限制农药抗性生长方面非常有效。然而，由于一个农民的选择会影响邻居的选择，外部性依然存在，公共政策也变得必要。我们分析了两种税制，一种以投入为导向，另一种以结果为导向。我们推导出两种税收体系在某种条件下都指向社会最优策略。我们证明，以结果为导向的方案对农民时间偏好所需的信息较少。

Access to Credit and Mechanisation Service Expenditure: An Analysis Considering Access, Sources, Purposes and Amounts of Credit

Xiance Sang, Wanglin Ma, Aya Suzuki, Hepei Zhang

Abstract:This study estimates the impact of access to credit on mechanisation service expenditure by considering farmers' binary credit access decisions and distinguishing between formal and informal credit access. We employ a conditional mixed process model to address selection bias issues and use open-access data from the Rural Development Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Beijing, China) through the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey. The theoretical analyses suggest that relaxing credit constraints enables farmers to achieve higher net returns by increasing all variable inputs, including farm machines, until they achieve the expected optimal level. The empirical results reveal that access to credit significantly increases mechanisation service expenditure by 115.5 yuan/mu, and the impact is larger on farmers cultivating small- and medium-sized farms and those residing in the less developed central and western regions. Access to formal and informal credit affects mechanisation service expenditure differently. Specifically, accessing credit from formal sources (e.g., banks) significantly increases mechanisation service expenditure by 44.7 yuan/mu, while accessing credit from informal sources (e.g., friends and relatives) has no statistically significant effect on mechanisation service expenditure. Moreover, credit primarily intended for financing agricultural production significantly increases mechanisation service expenditure by 83.5 yuan/mu, whereas credit used mainly for non-agricultural purposes significantly reduces such expenditure by 25.5 yuan/mu. These findings are further verified by estimating the effects of loan amounts on mechanisation service expenditure. Finally, we also investigate the nexus between mechanisation service adoption and farm performance, revealing that mechanisation service adoption increases crop yield by 12.6% and commercialisation by 77.4%, respectively.

摘要：本研究通过考虑农民的二元信贷准入决策，并区分正式与非正规信贷准入，估算信贷获取对机械化服务支出的影响。我们采用条件混合过程模型解决选择偏差问题，并利用中国社会科学院农村发展研究所（北京）至2020年中国农村振兴调查的开放获取数据。理论分析表明，放宽信贷约束使农民通过增加所有可变投入（包括农机）达到预期的最优水平，从而获得更高的净回报。实证结果显示，信贷获取显著增加了机械化服务支出115.5元/亩，对耕作中小农户及中西部欠发达地区的农民影响更大。正规和非正规信贷的获取对机械化服务支出的影响不同。具体来说，从正规渠道（如银行）获得信贷，机械化服务支出显著增加44.7元/亩，而从非正规来源（如亲友）获得信贷，对机械化服务支出没有统计学上显著影响。此外，主要用于农业生产融资的信贷显著增加机械化服务支出83.5元/亩，而主要用于非农业目的的信贷则显著减少25.5元/亩。这些发现通过估算贷款金额对机械化服务支出的影响得到了进一步验证。最后，我们还调查了机械化服务采用与农场绩效之间的关联，发现机械化服务的采用分别使作物产量提升12.6%，商业化提升77.4%。

Impact of the National Rural E-Commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy on Rural Labour Force Participation

Shixian Zhai, Peng Wang, Chao Peng

Abstract:The expansion of the digital economy, particularly e-commerce, has become a key driver of China's pursuit of high-quality economic growth. This study examines the impact of the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy (NRECDP) on rural labour force participation in e-commerce. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design and panel data from the National Fixed-site Rural Survey (NFRS), we evaluate how the policy has shaped e-commerce engagement in rural areas. The result shows that NRECDP significantly increased the share of the rural labour force involved in e-commerce, raising village-level participation rates by 0.30% during the pilot period. The effect was stronger in villages with lower human capital and those located near urban areas, indicating marked regional heterogeneity. Mechanism analysis suggests that the policy promoted rural e-commerce mainly by lowering transaction costs, improving digital payment capacity and strengthening the local e-commerce environment. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining targeted support policies to sustain rural e-commerce development.

摘要：数字经济的扩展，尤其是电子商务，已成为中国追求高质量经济增长的关键驱动力。本研究考察了国家农村电子商务综合示范政策（NRECDP）对农村劳动力参与电子商务的影响。我们利用分阶段差异设计和国家固定地点农村调查（NFRS）的面板数据，评估该政策如何塑造农村地区的电子商务参与。结果显示，NRECDP显著增加了农村劳动力参与电子商务的比例，试点期间村级参与率提高了0.30%。这种效应在人力资本较低和靠近城市的村庄中更为强烈，显示出明显的地区异质性。机制分析表明，该政策主要通过降低交易成本、提升数字支付能力和强化本地电子商务环境来促进农村电子商务发展。这些发现凸显了维持有针对性支持政策以维持农村电子商务发展的重要性。

Effects of Alternate Wetting and Drying on Water Savings and Rice Yields in The Philippines

Soumi Chandra, Roderick M. Rejesus, Jose M. Yorobe Jr

Abstract:Water scarcity is a significant challenge for farmers in major rice-producing countries, as traditional rice production typically requires rice fields to remain flooded throughout the growing season. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) is a water management technique developed for rice cultivation where rice fields are allowed to dry intermittently. This paper evaluated the causal impact of the AWD irrigation technique on water savings and rice yields in a large-scale gravity-based irrigation system in the Philippines. Using a 2-year panel data set from a trial based on a random encouragement design, we employ a difference-in-differences empirical strategy and conduct a number of robustness checks (e.g., propensity score matching, changes-in-changes and Kinky least squares) to achieve the study objective. We find strong positive impacts on water savings and no penalty in terms of rice yields when farmers are randomly encouraged to adopt AWD. Results from the heterogeneity analysis indicate that midstream farmers save the most amount of water and upstream and midstream farmers typically experience larger yield impacts. Findings highlight AWD's potential to address water scarcity and adapt to climate change, suggesting that water stress in major rice-producing regions can be mitigated through broader adoption of AWD. The study also points to the need for more targeted promotion efforts and policy strategies to ensure more equitable water distribution in gravity irrigation systems.

摘要：水资源短缺是主要稻米生产国农民面临的重大挑战，因为传统稻米生产通常需要稻田在整个生长季节保持淹水状态。交替湿润与干燥（AWD）是一种为稻田间歇性干燥的水种植开发的水管理技术。本文评估了全轮驱动灌溉技术对菲律宾大规模重力灌溉系统中节水和稻米产量的因果影响。我们采用基于随机激励设计的两年样本，采用差异中的差异实证策略，并进行多项稳健性检查（如倾向评分匹配、变化变化和奇特最小二乘法）以实现研究目标。我们发现，当农民随机被鼓励采用全轮驱动时，水资源节约会有强烈的积极影响，且在稻米产量方面没有任何惩罚。异质性分析结果显示，中游农民节约的水量最大，而上游和中游农民通常会受到更大的产量影响。研究结果凸显了AWD解决水资源短缺和适应气候变化的潜力，表明通过更广泛采用AWD可以缓解主要稻米产区的水资源压力。研究还指出，需要更有针对性的推广和政策策略，以确保重力灌溉系统水资源分配更加公平。

Linking the ICRISAT Genebank to Poverty Reduction and Welfare in Malawi

Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong, Melinda Smale, Nelissa Jamora, Vania Azevedo

Abstract:Genebanks contribute to the development of improved crop varieties through the conservation and supply of diverse germplasm for use in agricultural research by scientists, such as plant breeders. Tracing their contribution to the welfare and poverty impacts of improved varieties on smallholder farmers presents multiple challenges, as the germplasm is distributed to users globally and a crop improvement programme can take as long as 10 years to develop a new improved variety that can be released to farmers. We examine the relationship between genetic ancestry, development of improved groundnut varieties and poverty reduction among smallholder households in Malawi. First, we apportion the genetic ancestry and relative provenance of International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics genes of each variety and relate them to genebanks using pedigree data and expert interviews. We then leverage a three-wave household-level panel dataset with several estimation strategies, including panel and pseudo-panel fixed effect estimators, to examine the association between genetic ancestry, the adoption of improved groundnut varieties and household welfare. We establish a positive association between genetic ancestry and the development of improved groundnut varieties. We find a positive association between the adoption of improved groundnut varieties and household income, assets and livestock (wealth). Improved groundnut varieties are also negatively associated with poverty indices. Our findings lend support and credence to continued investments in global efforts to conserve and widely distribute diverse genetic materials for crop improvement.

摘要：基因库通过保护和供应多样化的种质资源，促进改良作物品种的发展，供科学家如植物育种者等农业研究使用。追溯改良品种对小农户福利和减贫影响的贡献面临多重挑战，因为种质资源分布在全球用户，作物改良计划可能需要长达10年才能开发出可向农民释放的新改良品种。我们考察了马拉维小农户中遗传祖先、改良花生品种的发展与减贫之间的关系。首先，我们分配了国际作物研究所半干旱热带地区各品种的遗传祖源和相对来源，并利用血统数据和专家访谈将其与基因库关联起来。随后，我们利用三波家庭层面面板数据集，采用多种估计策略，包括面板和伪面板固定效应估计，探讨遗传祖源、改良花生品种的采纳与家庭福利之间的关联。我们确立了遗传祖先与改良花生品种发展之间的正相关性。我们发现，采用改良花生品种与家庭收入、资产和牲畜（财富）之间存在正相关。改良的花生品种也与贫困指数呈负相关。我们的发现支持并信服了全球继续投资，保护和广泛分发多样化遗传物质以促进作物改良。

Youth Entrepreneurship in the Agribusiness Sector in Tanzania

Min Bai, Yohane Kitwima Magembe

Abstract:This study examines the involvement of youth in agricultural-related activities in Tanzania. The data are nationally representative from the National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA) 2020. We adopt descriptive, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and econometric analyses. Results from the descriptive analysis show that unreliable rain associated with floods, pests and diseases and drought are critical problems, whereas low market price, market too far, high transport cost, lack of market information and insufficient production are major challenges affecting youth agripreneurship. Results from SEM reveal that mechanisation, irrigation, agro-product processing, harvest value in TZS, credit, membership in a community group, training/extension, use of information source channels, farm input costs and land ownership are directly related to youth involvement in agripreneurship. At the same time, off-farm income, general education, business ownership and age negatively influence youth entrepreneurship in agribusiness. The indirect/mediated effects of off-farm income, farm input costs, credit and general education on youth involvement in entrepreneurship in agribusiness are reported. The robustness check results are consistent with the SEM results. Overall, the study proposes policy measures, academic and parental interventions to promote and retain many youths in agripreneurship.

摘要：本研究考察了坦桑尼亚青年参与农业相关活动的情况。这些数据具有全国代表性，来自2020年全国农业样本普查（NSCA）。我们采用描述性、结构方程建模（SEM）和计量经济学分析。描述性分析结果显示，与洪水、害虫和疾病以及干旱相关的不稳定降雨是关键问题，而低市场价格、市场过远、高运输成本、缺乏市场信息和产量不足是影响青年农业创业的主要挑战。SEM的结果显示，机械化、灌溉、农产品加工、TZS收获价值、信贷、社区团体成员资格、培训/推广、信息来源渠道使用、农场投入成本和土地所有权与青年参与农业创业直接相关。与此同时，农场外收入、普通教育、企业所有权和年龄都负面影响着青年在农业企业中的创业精神。报告了农场外收入、农场投入成本、信贷和一般教育对青年参与农业创业的间接/中介效应。鲁棒性检查结果与SEM结果一致。总体而言，研究提出了政策措施、学术和家长干预措施，以促进和留住许多青年进入农业创业者。

Analysis of Japanese Beef Imports: Exploring Source and Primal Differentiation and Their Implications for Tariff Liberalisation

Andrew Muhammad, Md Deluair Hossen, Karen Lewis DeLong

Abstract:Import demand and trade studies often rely on aggregate Harmonised System data, which could result in aggregation bias and erroneous policy inference. We examine the demand for imported beef in Japan using more detailed trade data that accounts for source (e.g., Australia, United States) and primal cut (e.g., chuck, brisket, loin). The data allow us to address key questions: Are source-specific preferences conditional on product characteristics and vice versa? Do preferences, as measured by estimates of habit formation, expenditure allocation and own-price responsiveness, significantly differ when product characteristics are ignored? When assessing the gains from tariff liberalisation, are welfare estimates biased by the level of product differentiation assumed for analysis? Including both source and primal cut in the modelling framework enhance the analysis, leading to a better understanding of Japanese import demand. Results indicate that source-based preferences are influenced by the primal cut and vice versa. However, elasticity estimates are not significantly different across models in most instances, particularly when source is considered. Additionally, the trade policy analysis yields comparable welfare outcomes. In this instance, more aggregated data does not cause significant issues for policy analysis. This is good news for larger scale analysis limited to Harmonised System data.

摘要：进口需求和贸易研究常依赖于汇总的统一系统数据，这可能导致聚合偏差和错误的政策推断。我们利用更详细的贸易数据分析日本进口牛肉的需求，数据涵盖了来源（如澳大利亚、美国）和原牛肉（如肩胛肉、牛腩、里脊）。这些数据使我们能够回答关键问题：特定来源的偏好是否取决于产品特性，反之亦然？当忽视产品特性时，偏好（通过习惯形成、支出分配和自有价格响应性估计）是否显著不同？在评估关税自由化带来的收益时，福利估算是否会因分析所假设的产品差异水平而产生偏差？在建模框架中同时包含源切割和原始切割，有助于分析，从而更好地理解日本的进口需求。结果表明，基于来源的偏好受原始切割影响，反之亦然。然而，在大多数情况下，不同模型的弹性估计差异并不显著，尤其是在考虑源时。此外，贸易政策分析得出的福利结果也相当。在这种情况下，更聚合的数据并不会对政策分析造成重大问题。这对于仅限于协调系统数据的大规模分析来说是个好消息。

How Do Stated Attribute Cut-Off Values Influence Attention and Subsequent Willingness to Pay? Evidence From an Eye-Tracking Food Choice Experiment

Carola Grebitus, Mohammed Hussen Alemu

Abstract:Individuals have cognitive limits and systematically rely upon heuristics when making decisions. One such example is threshold-based heuristics where decision makers use attribute cut-offs to screen and eliminate alternatives from their choice set that do not satisfy their cut-off levels for critical attributes. Failure to account for information on attribute cut-offs can generate biased estimates in choice models. This study addresses stated attribute cut-offs in discrete choice experiments using eye-tracking technology. We assess the relationship between hard stated attribute cut-off levels and visual attention data extracted from eye tracking. We then investigate how incorporating this information into choice models affects willingness to pay. Three main results can be reported: (1) a considerable number of individuals stated that they have attribute cut-offs, (2) attention increased for attributes that individuals stated they have a cut-off for and (3) stated cut-off levels and visual attention independently affected individuals' willingness to pay, with weak interaction effects. We discuss the implications of the results for researchers and business practitioners.

摘要：个体有认知极限，在做决策时系统性地依赖启发式方法。其中一个例子是基于阈值的启发式方法，决策者利用属性截止值筛选并剔除未满足关键属性截止水平的选项。未能考虑属性界限信息可能导致选择模型中出现偏见估计。本研究利用眼动追踪技术，针对离散选择实验中所规定的属性界限问题。我们评估了硬陈述属性阈值与眼动追踪提取的视觉注意力数据之间的关系。随后，我们研究将这些信息纳入选择模型如何影响支付意愿。可以报告三个主要结果：（1）相当数量的个体表示他们有属性门槛，（2）对个体自称有属性门槛的注意力增加，以及（3）明确的阈值和视觉注意力独立影响个体的支付意愿，但交互作用较弱。我们讨论了这些结果对研究人员和商业从业者的影响。

Willingness-to-Pay for Safe Vegetables: A Comparative Analysis Between Wet Market and Supermarket Shoppers in Urban Cambodia

Mercy Mwambi, Pepijn Schreinemachers, Naphtal Habiyaremye, Lyda Hok, Uon Bonnarith, Paul Ebner

Abstract:Consumers in low- and middle-income countries are increasingly worried about food safety, but markets for safe produce remain underdeveloped and do not offer farmers a premium price. This study used the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak experimental auction design to identify the market for safe vegetables by assessing consumers' willingness to pay for both internationally and locally certified vegetables. The study involved 585 shoppers at wet markets and supermarkets in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The factors influencing willingness to pay were analysed using Pooled Ordinary Least Squares. Compared to uncertified vegetables, shoppers were willing to pay 100% more for those certified as United States Department of Agriculture Organic and 55% more for those certified under Cambodian Global Agricultural Practices. Providing information about both types of certification increased shoppers' willingness to pay for certified vegetables, with a greater increase for the international label than the local one. For the local label, information only increased willingness to pay among supermarket shoppers, not wet market shoppers. Our findings highlight the importance of age and income in shaping consumers' willingness to pay for safe produce. We offer recommendations to improve food purchasing choices in low-income countries, emphasising the need for food safety information that is tailored to different populations.

摘要：低收入和中等收入国家的消费者对食品安全日益担忧，但安全农产品的市场仍然不发达，无法为农民提供溢价。本研究采用Becker–DeGroot–Marschak实验拍卖设计，通过评估消费者对国际和本地认证蔬菜的支付意愿，确定安全蔬菜的市场。该研究涉及柬埔寨金边的585名湿货市场和超市购物者。使用汇总普通最小二乘法分析了影响支付意愿的因素。与未认证蔬菜相比，消费者愿意为获得美国农业部有机认证的蔬菜支付100%的费用，而获得柬埔寨全球农业实践认证的则支付55%。提供两种认证的信息提高了消费者购买认证蔬菜的意愿，国际标签的涨幅超过本地标签。对于本地标签来说，信息只增加了超市购物者的购买意愿，而非湿市场消费者。我们的研究结果凸显了年龄和收入在塑造消费者购买安全农产品意愿中的重要性。我们提出改善低收入国家食品购买选择的建议，强调需要针对不同人群量身定制的食品安全信息。

Calorie Labelling of Delivered Meals for Healthier Consumer Choices

Dan Wang, Wuyang Hu, Jian Li, Ping Qing

Abstract:Calorie information is often absent for delivered meals. We use a discrete choice experiment to examine how three calorie label strategies affect consumer choices for delivered meals: a numeric calorie label, a numeric plus traffic light calorie label and a physical activity calorie equivalent label. Relative to no label, all three strategies increase preferences for low-calorie delivered meals. Consumers prefer medium-calorie delivered meals more under the numeric and the numeric plus traffic light labels than under the physical activity calorie equivalent label. Conversely, the physical activity calorie equivalent label outperforms the numeric label in enhancing the market share of low-calorie delivered meals. The numeric plus traffic light label is more effective than the numeric label in reducing the market share of high-calorie delivered meals while increasing consumer willingness to pay for low-calorie delivered meals. Furthermore, effects vary across meal categories and product characteristics. These findings underscore that flexible calorie labelling on delivery platforms can promote healthier choices and provide actionable guidance for industry stakeholders and policymakers.

摘要：送餐时常常缺乏热量信息。我们使用离散选择实验，考察三种热量标签策略如何影响消费者对送餐的选择：数字热量标签、数字加红绿灯热量标签和体育活动热量等效标签。相较于无标签，这三种策略都增加了对低热量配送餐食的偏好。消费者更喜欢中热量的餐食，这些餐食带有数字和数字加交通信号灯标签，而非体育活动热量等值标签。相反，体育活动等效热量标签在提升低热量配送餐食市场份额方面优于数字标签。数字加交通信号灯标签在减少高热量配送餐食的市场份额方面比数字标签更有效，同时提高消费者为低热量配送餐食支付的意愿。此外，不同餐类和产品特性的影响也各不相同。这些发现强调，配送平台上灵活的热量标注可以促进更健康的选择，并为行业利益相关者和政策制定者提供切实可行的指导。

Firm Strategic Labelling and Chinese Consumers' Preference for Carbonated Beverages: The Role of Healthfulness and Taste

Yue Yang, Wuyang Hu, Yulian Ding, Kevin Chen, Jia Du

Abstract:This study examines how firms' strategic responses to the public effort of sugar reduction influence Chinese consumers' beverage choices. We apply choice experiments to create market scenarios where companies emphasise low sugar and calorie content, as well as the use of natural sweeteners. Our findings indicate that consumers prefer diet cola labelled as ‘zero sugar and zero calorie’ and ‘natural sweeteners derived from stevia’ over diet cola without such specific claims. However, our results reveal no significant difference between the impact of these two distinct claims on consumer choices. We further observe that consumers favour regular cola over diet cola without specific product claims, implying that merely offering sugar-free products may not motivate consumers to opt for more healthful beverages. Regarding the trade-offs between healthfulness and taste in beverage choices, we find that although both factors are important, taste tends to have a greater influence on consumer beverage purchases.

摘要：本研究考察了企业对公众减糖努力的战略回应如何影响中国消费者的饮品选择。我们应用选择性实验来创造市场场景，让企业强调低糖分和低热量含量，以及使用天然甜味剂。我们的研究结果显示，消费者更喜欢标注为“零糖零热量”和“甜叶草天然甜味剂”的健怡可乐，而非没有这些具体声明的健怡可乐。然而，我们的结果显示这两种不同主张对消费者选择的影响并无显著差异。我们还观察到，消费者更倾向于普通可乐而非无糖可乐，但没有具体产品声明，这意味着仅仅提供无糖产品可能不会激励消费者选择更健康的饮品。关于饮品选择中健康和口味之间的权衡，我们发现虽然两者都很重要，但口味对消费者饮品购买的影响更大。

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