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Nature Food|农业在粮食系统转型期间的搁浅资产

2026-02-11 07:10:40

Nature Food|农业在粮食系统转型期间的搁浅资产

摘要：饮食结构的变化，特别是高收入国家动物源性食品（ASF）消费量的减少，可能导致大量与ASF相关的资产闲置。我们将农业和经济数据与全球多区域投入产出模型相结合，结果表明，ASF资产占欧盟27国和英国固定农业资产的78%，其中1580亿欧元与畜牧业相关，1000亿欧元与饲料生产相关。我们估计，欧盟27国和英国ASF消费量分别减少9.5%、60%和100%可能导致这些资产中18%、50%和77%闲置。目前的折旧率表明，总体而言，有足够的时间逐步淘汰这些资产，从而为减少资产闲置提供了途径。政策和气候因素导致的资产闲置风险相互交织，应将两者作为重叠的转型压力纳入金融模型。鉴于食品生产商面临高风险的闲置风险会波及整个供应链，因此，提供综合政策支持以重新利用或逐步淘汰与ASF相关的资产至关重要，以避免可持续粮食系统转型进程的延误。

主要结果：

图 1：2020 年欧盟 27 国 + 英国食品系统中的资产类型概览。

图 2：按资产类型划分的动物、饲料和植物资产在食品生产中的分配。

图 3：EAT-柳叶刀饮食情景下的隐含固定资产。

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0.088195s

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