塑造 2026 年全球农业格局的五大趋势

每个种植季都有不确定性，但 2026 年的农业领域格外特殊 —— 试错空间持续缩小，挑战愈发严峻。水资源管理、法规合规、劳动力紧缺、技术落地、资金获取，成为困扰全球种植者的核心难题。如何在复杂环境中保障产量、管控风险、提升运营韧性？本文梳理五大核心趋势，深入解析其对农场预算、系统设计、日常运营的影响，助力种植者认清方向、把握机遇。

注：第一部分为中文文章，第二部分为英文文章及音频，第三部分为分段译注文章

（本文仅用于学习用途，For non-commercial educational use only）

中文文章：

五大趋势，将塑造 2026 年全球农业格局

5 Forces That Will Shape Agriculture in 2026

From: GlobalAgtechInitiative

农业界有一句老生常谈：每个种植季都充满不确定性。但今年的感觉格外不同 ——试错空间比以往任何时候都更小。对种植者而言，2026 年的挑战不在于追赶各种号称能创造奇迹的新创意或人工智能工具，而在于选择真正能够保障产量、管理风险、提升经营韧性的技术与体系。

在北美各地农场、灌区与农业管理部门，同样的问题反复出现：我们该如何管理水资源、维持产量与作物健康？如何在不增加成本的前提下遵守不断变化的法规？在劳动力本就紧张的情况下，如何更高效、更精简地运营农场？

我们的团队长期深入田间，与种植者和经销商合作，近距离观察到这些挑战，以及影响解决方案的各类因素。

以下是五大核心趋势，正在影响农场预算、系统设计与日常运营：

1、水资源短缺已成为规划前提

在西部许多流域，地下水限制与极端天气波动已成为农业常态。种植者必须从被动应对短缺，转向更有规划、更注重记录的资源管理模式。数据监测变得前所未有的重要，帮助种植者为本季及未来制定策略。2026 年，将灌溉视为一套可基于实时数据评估与调整的系统，将为生产带来更强稳定性。

2、监管政策对实际运营影响重大

养分与地下水相关法规的调整，正带来来自监管机构、贷款方和社会各界的新压力。这要求农场对各项操作进行记录，清晰的灌溉与施肥台账正成为风险管理不可或缺的一部分。记录虽不能替代优秀的农艺技术，但在必要时可提供合规证明。

3、技术必须证明自身价值

大多数种植者已经见过太多被大肆宣传却昙花一现的工具，因此持谨慎态度。2026 年，能够切实证明可减轻工作量、通过整合有效数据优化决策的数字化系统，才会真正获得推广。例如，用于灌溉调度、水泵与能源管理、漏水监测的省时省钱技术正越来越普及。农民会快速判断：易落地、有效果就保留；增加不必要复杂度就淘汰。

4、劳动力紧缺成为新常态

劳动力短缺已不再是暂时的季节性波动。简化系统、采用自动化设备完成常规巡查的农场，将能在人手更少的情况下稳健发展。远程监测、自动阀门、精准预警能大幅减少不必要的田间往返。这些效率提升让熟练工人有精力专注于需要判断的问题，而非重复劳动。

5、合作关系影响农场升级的资金来源

未来将出现更多公私合营的过渡性资助项目，支持种植者推进灌溉现代化。这些项目同时服务于水资源管理与供应链目标。2026 年，最具竞争力的项目将建立在共同责任基础之上。耐特菲姆企业合作项目就是一个务实模式，可将企业可持续发展目标转化为可衡量的水资源与气候效益。愿意从现在就开始记录基线、持续追踪数据的种植者，最有机会抓住这类新机遇。

所有趋势相互关联，共同影响农场的长期生存能力：水资源管理直接关系作物产量；政策变化为农场申请升级融资增加阻力；劳动力供给左右日常运营效率。每个种植季都有风险与不确定性，但那些自信迎接 2026 年的农场，正在做出审慎选择，从而掌握更多主动权、降低风险暴露。

英文文章：（632 Words）

5 Forces That Will Shape Agriculture in 2026

From: GlobalAgtechInitiative

It’s a farming truism that every growing season brings uncertainty. But this year feels different – the margin for error is thinner than ever. For growers, the challenge in 2026 will not be trying to keep up with every new idea or AI tool that promises miracles. Rather, it is the challenge of choosing technology and systems that actually protect yield, manage risk, and add resiliency to operations.

Across North American farms, irrigation districts, and ag offices are hearing the same questions surface again and again. How do we manage water resources, maintain yields, and crop health? How do we stay compliant with shifting regulations without adding costs? How do we run our farms effectively and leaner when labor is already stretched?

Our teams spend a lot of time in the fields collaborating with growers and dealers. They’re seeing up close the challenges and the variety of factors influencing how those questions are answered.

Here are five of the main trends shaping budgets, system design, and day-to-day operations.

1. Water constraints are now a planning assumption

In many Western basins, groundwater limitations and extreme weather volatility are now a normal part of farming. Growers are having to shift from reacting to shortages to managing resources with more planning and documentation. Measurement matters more than ever, as growers strategize for this season and those to come. In 2026, treating irrigation as a system that can be evaluated and adjusted based on real-time data will add stability.

2. Regulation carries real operational weight

Nutrient and groundwater rule changes are bringing new pressures from regulators, lenders, and communities. This requires that farms document what they do. Clear records of irrigation and nutrient practices are becoming an integral part of risk management. Record-keeping doesn’t replace good agronomy, but can provide verification if necessary.

3. Technology must earn its place

Most growers have seen enough hyped-up tools come and go to be skeptical. In 2026, digital systems will gain traction when they can prove to reduce workloads and improve decisions by compiling useful data. For example, technologies that save time and money by handling irrigation scheduling, pump and energy management, and leak detection are growing in use. Farmers can quickly assess results: if a system is easy to implement and performs, it stays. If it adds unnecessary complexity to the workday, out it goes.

4. Limited labor is the new normal

Labor shortages are no longer temporary seasonal blips. Farms that simplify their systems and adopt automation to cover routine checks will be better equipped to thrive with fewer hands. Remote monitoring, automated valves, and targeted alerts can go a long way toward reducing unnecessary trips into the field. These added efficiencies mean your experienced workers have the time to focus on issues that require judgment instead of repetition.

5. Partnerships influence how farm improvements get funded

We will likely see more public and private bridge-funding programs that assist growers with irrigation modernization. These programs are designed to also support water stewardship and supply chain goals. In 2026, the strongest projects will be those built on shared accountability. Netafim’s Corporate Partnership Program is one pragmatic model for turning corporate sustainability goals into measurable water and climate outcomes. Growers most likely to benefit from these and other programs are documenting their baselines and tracking now, so they’re ready for new opportunities.

All of these trends interconnect, affecting the long-term viability of farms. How water resources are managed is vital to crop yields; shifting regulations add friction for farmers trying to secure financing for upgrades, and labor availability skews the efficiency of day-to-day operations. Every farm season carries risk and uncertainty, but farms that approach 2026 with confidence are making deliberate choices that give them more control and reduce exposure.

分段译注文章：

5 Forces That Will Shape Agriculture in 2026

From: GlobalAgtechInitiative

It’s a farming truism that every growing season brings uncertainty. But this year feels different – the margin for error is thinner than ever. For growers, the challenge in 2026 will not be trying to keep up with every new idea or AI tool that promises miracles. Rather, it is the challenge of choosing technology and systems that actually protect yield, manage risk, and add resiliency to operations.

农业界有一句老生常谈：每个种植季都充满不确定性。但今年的感觉格外不同 ——试错空间比以往任何时候都更小。对种植者而言，2026 年的挑战不在于追赶各种号称能创造奇迹的新创意或人工智能工具，而在于选择真正能够保障产量、管理风险、提升经营韧性的技术与体系。

※ truism ※

Truism  英/ˈtruːɪzəm/ 美/ˈtruːɪzəm/

n. 不言而喻的道理；老生常谈；自明之理

【例句】

It is a truism that healthy soil produces healthy crops.

健康土壤产出健康作物是不言而喻的道理。

The report began with the truism that water is essential for agriculture.

报告以"水对农业至关重要"这一老生常谈开篇。

Across North American farms, irrigation districts, and ag offices are hearing the same questions surface again and again. How do we manage water resources, maintain yields, and crop health? How do we stay compliant with shifting regulations without adding costs? How do we run our farms effectively and leaner when labor is already stretched?

在北美各地农场、灌区与农业管理部门，同样的问题反复出现：我们该如何管理水资源、维持产量与作物健康？如何在不增加成本的前提下遵守不断变化的法规？在劳动力本就紧张的情况下，如何更高效、更精简地运营农场？

※ compliant ※

Compliant  英/kəmˈplaɪənt/ 美/kəmˈplaɪənt/

adj. 合规的；服从的；顺从的

【例句】

The farm became ESG compliant after installing leak detection systems.

安装泄漏检测系统后，该农场符合ESG标准。

Compliant data handling is essential for international trade.

合规的数据处理对国际贸易至关重要。

Our teams spend a lot of time in the fields collaborating with growers and dealers. They’re seeing up close the challenges and the variety of factors influencing how those questions are answered.

我们的团队长期深入田间，与种植者和经销商合作，近距离观察到这些挑战，以及影响解决方案的各类因素。

Here are five of the main trends shaping budgets, system design, and day-to-day operations.

以下是五大核心趋势，正在影响农场预算、系统设计与日常运营：

1. Water constraints are now a planning assumption

1、水资源短缺已成为规划前提

In many Western basins, groundwater limitations and extreme weather volatility are now a normal part of farming. Growers are having to shift from reacting to shortages to managing resources with more planning and documentation. Measurement matters more than ever, as growers strategize for this season and those to come. In 2026, treating irrigation as a system that can be evaluated and adjusted based on real-time data will add stability.

在西部许多流域，地下水限制与极端天气波动已成为农业常态。种植者必须从被动应对短缺，转向更有规划、更注重记录的资源管理模式。数据监测变得前所未有的重要，帮助种植者为本季及未来制定策略。2026 年，将灌溉视为一套可基于实时数据评估与调整的系统，将为生产带来更强稳定性。

※ basin ※

Basin  英/ˈbeɪsn/ 美/ˈbeɪsn/

n. 盆地；流域；水池

【例句】

The Yellow River Basin is crucial for China's grain production.

黄河流域对中国的粮食生产至关重要。

Irrigation in the basin depends on snowmelt from upstream mountains.

该流域的灌溉依赖上游山区的融雪。

2. Regulation carries real operational weight

2、监管政策对实际运营影响重大

Nutrient and groundwater rule changes are bringing new pressures from regulators, lenders, and communities. This requires that farms document what they do. Clear records of irrigation and nutrient practices are becoming an integral part of risk management. Record-keeping doesn’t replace good agronomy, but can provide verification if necessary.

养分与地下水相关法规的调整，正带来来自监管机构、贷款方和社会各界的新压力。这要求农场对各项操作进行记录，清晰的灌溉与施肥台账正成为风险管理不可或缺的一部分。记录虽不能替代优秀的农艺技术，但在必要时可提供合规证明。

※ agronomy ※

Agronomy  英/əˈɡrɒnəmi/ 美/əˈɡrɑːnəmi/

n. 农学；农艺学

【例句】

Advances in agronomy have doubled wheat yields in the region.

农学进步使该地区小麦产量翻了一番。

The research station focuses on dryland agronomy.

该研究站专注于旱地农艺学。

3. Technology must earn its place

3、技术必须证明自身价值

Most growers have seen enough hyped-up tools come and go to be skeptical. In 2026, digital systems will gain traction when they can prove to reduce workloads and improve decisions by compiling useful data. For example, technologies that save time and money by handling irrigation scheduling, pump and energy management, and leak detection are growing in use. Farmers can quickly assess results: if a system is easy to implement and performs, it stays. If it adds unnecessary complexity to the workday, out it goes.

大多数种植者已经见过太多被大肆宣传却昙花一现的工具，因此持谨慎态度。2026 年，能够切实证明可减轻工作量、通过整合有效数据优化决策的数字化系统，才会真正获得推广。例如，用于灌溉调度、水泵与能源管理、漏水监测的省时省钱技术正越来越普及。农民会快速判断：易落地、有效果就保留；增加不必要复杂度就淘汰。

※ leak detection ※

Leak detection  英/liːk dɪˈtekʃn/ 美/liːk dɪˈtekʃn/

n. 泄漏检测；检漏

【例句】

Automated leak detection prevents water loss in irrigation networks.

自动化泄漏检测防止灌溉网络的水损失。

The system provides real-time leak detection for methane pipelines.

该系统为甲烷管道提供实时泄漏检测。

4. Limited labor is the new normal

4、劳动力紧缺成为新常态

Labor shortages are no longer temporary seasonal blips. Farms that simplify their systems and adopt automation to cover routine checks will be better equipped to thrive with fewer hands. Remote monitoring, automated valves, and targeted alerts can go a long way toward reducing unnecessary trips into the field. These added efficiencies mean your experienced workers have the time to focus on issues that require judgment instead of repetition.

劳动力短缺已不再是暂时的季节性波动。简化系统、采用自动化设备完成常规巡查的农场，将能在人手更少的情况下稳健发展。远程监测、自动阀门、精准预警能大幅减少不必要的田间往返。这些效率提升让熟练工人有精力专注于需要判断的问题，而非重复劳动。

※ blip ※

Blip  英/blɪp/ 美/blɪp/

n. 波动；短暂变化；光点

v. 发出信号；短暂显现

【例句】

The revenue dip was just a blip, not a long-term trend.

收入下降只是短暂波动，并非长期趋势。

A blip on the screen indicated a valve malfunction.

屏幕上的一个光点显示阀门故障。

※ valve ※

Valve  英/vælv/ 美/vælv/

n. 阀门；活门；瓣膜

【例句】

Smart valves adjust water flow based on soil moisture data.

智能阀门根据土壤湿度数据调节水流。

A faulty valve caused the leak detected by the system.

故障阀门导致系统检测到的泄漏。

5. Partnerships influence how farm improvements get funded

5、合作关系影响农场升级的资金来源

We will likely see more public and private bridge-funding programs that assist growers with irrigation modernization. These programs are designed to also support water stewardship and supply chain goals. In 2026, the strongest projects will be those built on shared accountability. Netafim’s Corporate Partnership Program is one pragmatic model for turning corporate sustainability goals into measurable water and climate outcomes. Growers most likely to benefit from these and other programs are documenting their baselines and tracking now, so they’re ready for new opportunities.

未来将出现更多公私合营的过渡性资助项目，支持种植者推进灌溉现代化。这些项目同时服务于水资源管理与供应链目标。2026 年，最具竞争力的项目将建立在共同责任基础之上。耐特菲姆企业合作项目就是一个务实模式，可将企业可持续发展目标转化为可衡量的水资源与气候效益。愿意从现在就开始记录基线、持续追踪数据的种植者，最有机会抓住这类新机遇。

※ stewardship ※

Stewardship  英/ˈstjuːədʃɪp/ 美/ˈstuːərdʃɪp/

n. 管理； stewardship；保护；管家职责

【例句】

Land stewardship is central to sustainable agriculture.

土地管理是可持续农业的核心。

The program promotes environmental stewardship among farmers.

该项目在农民中推广环境保护管理。

※ pragmatic ※

Pragmatic  英/præɡˈmætɪk/ 美/præɡˈmætɪk/

adj. 务实的；实用的；实事求是的

【例句】

A pragmatic approach balances idealism with economic reality.

务实的方法在理想主义与经济现实间取得平衡。

The manager took a pragmatic view of the revenue growth blip.

经理对收入增长的波动采取了务实的看法。

All of these trends interconnect, affecting the long-term viability of farms. How water resources are managed is vital to crop yields; shifting regulations add friction for farmers trying to secure financing for upgrades, and labor availability skews the efficiency of day-to-day operations. Every farm season carries risk and uncertainty, but farms that approach 2026 with confidence are making deliberate choices that give them more control and reduce exposure.

所有趋势相互关联，共同影响农场的长期生存能力：水资源管理直接关系作物产量；政策变化为农场申请升级融资增加阻力；劳动力供给左右日常运营效率。每个种植季都有风险与不确定性，但那些自信迎接 2026 年的农场，正在做出审慎选择，从而掌握更多主动权、降低风险暴露。

※ skew ※

Skew  英/skjuː/ 美/skjuː/

v. 扭曲；使偏斜；歪曲

n. 偏斜；歪斜

adj. 歪斜的

【例句】

Small sample sizes can skew agronomy research results.

小样本量可能扭曲农学研究结果。

The data skew toward large farms, missing smallholder realities.

数据偏向大型农场，遗漏了小农户的实际情况。

- 词汇盘点 -

truism、compliant、basin、agronomy、leak detection、blip、valve、stewardship、pragmatic、skew

- END -

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