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【天风农业】超级牛周期已至!奶肉共振高弹性将至

  • 2026-07-30 10:45:39
【天风农业】超级牛周期已至!奶肉共振高弹性将至
【天风农业】超级牛周期已至！奶肉共振高弹性将至！ 
 1️⃣原奶：盈利拐点已至，奶价高点预期上修 超2年的长期深度亏损叠加疫病冲击产能持续出清，截至26年6月奶牛存栏577.2万头，较24年2月存栏高点去化近11%。价格信号持续强化，最新主产区奶价3.05元/kg，较前期多周维持的3.03元/kg上涨，同比+0.3%。预计本轮奶价上行高度和持续性超原3.5元预期。 超级牛周期下，高弹性值得期待。优然牧业26H1归母净利润约7.39-9.03亿，较25H1亏损2.97亿扭亏为盈，同比+349%至+404%。公司自2023年起由盈转亏，23-25年归母净利润分别为-10.5/-6.9/-4.3亿，累计亏损近22亿。26H1扭亏标志超级牛周期盈利拐点正式确认。
  2️⃣肉牛：产能出清彻底，补栏周期长，景气持续时间或超预期 肉牛自24年进入去化周期，能繁母牛去化超20%；牛价于25Q2开启上涨，目前活牛价格离上轮周期高点仍有约32%空间。肉牛养殖主体以散户为主，疫病扰动抬升综合成本，母牛补栏意愿偏弱，且牛补栏周期约2年、PSY仅为1，上行有望持续至28年或更久。外盘方面，截至6月末，国内第一大进口来源国巴西26年配额使用率达94.5%；第三大进口国澳大利亚配额已于6月18日用完，价格优势显著收窄。且全球牛肉供给整体趋紧，进一步夯实国内肉牛景气上行逻辑。  
3️⃣投资建议：盈利拐点开启，奶肉共振超级周期、弹性可期！ 超级牛周期已至，预计26H1牧企业绩预告确认盈利拐点。原奶两年半深度亏损，叠加疫病扰动抑制补栏，低效产能充分出清，主产区奶价企稳、散奶价格实质性修复，深加工需求持续扩容支撑奶价企稳上行。肉牛行业产能去化成效持续兑现，能繁母牛去化幅度超20%，犊牛补栏意愿低迷，长达2年的繁育周期叠加较低繁育效率，行业景气有望延续至28年甚至更久，肉奶双周期共振打开板块上行空间。相关标的：①奶肉共振的牧企：【优然牧业】【现代牧业】【中国圣牧】、澳亚集团、天润乳业等；②资源禀赋突出的牛肉贸易商：【紫燕食品】【光明肉业】等；③肉牛养殖及饲料集团：【播恩集团】【华统股份】、st天山等。
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000987s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=h_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001089s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000306s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000325s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000960s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000310s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000758s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 565225 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002275s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1785388436 WHERE `id` = 565225 [ RunTime:0.002613s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000261s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565225 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000562s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 565225 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000356s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565225 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000636s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565225 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.000721s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 565225 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002799s ]
0.088420s