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中国农业社会化服务供给活力的时空特征与分布动态演进

  • 2026-03-29 20:11:01
中国农业社会化服务供给活力的时空特征与分布动态演进
面对“大国小农”的国情，农业社会化服务是实现小农户与现代农业有效衔接的重要途径。本文利用Python大数据爬虫技术，构建 “农业社会化服务特征词库”爬取2012—2023年中国281个城市农业社会化服务数据并进一步进行时空特征分析。研究表明：农业社会化服务供给活力的总体差异呈现下降的趋势，2013—2019年农业社会化服务的总体差异呈缩小趋势，2020—2023年总体差异小幅波动上升，超变密度是导致总体差异的第一来源，其贡献率始终高于43%，这说明农业社会化服务供给活力存在明显的交叉重叠现象，这为因地制宜发展农业社会化服务提供政策启示。地区内部差异中东北地区差异大，地区间东东北、东西之间的差异尤为突出。基于莫兰指数和马尔科夫链的空间相关性结果，中国农业社会化服务供给活力存在空间集聚现象，即存在正向“空间溢出”效应和“俱乐部趋同”效应。本文为科学认识农业社会化服务的发展情况提供经验数据，以期为构建区域协调发展政策提供启示。
来源:刘传明,贾蕊,荣冬伟.中国农业社会化服务供给活力的时空特征与分布动态演进[J].世界农业,2026(3):97-111.
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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/32b793ebdcbdb96aeb8bb24c123b0bef.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000863s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=h_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001357s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000848s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000648s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001422s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.002977s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001727s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 491842 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.010559s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1775233868 WHERE `id` = 491842 [ RunTime:0.010577s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001237s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491842 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.030424s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 491842 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001265s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491842 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.014075s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491842 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.015629s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 491842 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.019075s ]
0.212251s