JAAE《农业与应用经济学》2025年第57卷第4期目录及摘要

全文链接：

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-and-applied-economics/issue/B9272B1C6773D15C49E4D339ADB0FB40

Crop Insurance Participation and Cover Crop Use: Evidence From Agricultural Resource Management Survey Data

作物保险参与与覆盖作物使用：农业资源管理调查数据的证据

Dylan Turner,Francis Tsiboe,Maria Bowman and Roderick M. Rejesus

Unraveling Hidden Patterns in Fed Cattle Negotiated Cash Prices Using Machine Learning

利用机器学习揭开美联储牛只中隐藏的现金价格谈判模式

Zuyi Wang,Man-Keun Kim ,Man-Keun Kim and Hernan Tejeda

Convergence Bias in Lean Hog Futures

瘦猪期货中的趋同偏差

Kyoungin Choe and Barry K. Goodwin

Willingness to Pay with Reference-dependent Preferences: A Comparative Analysis of Attribute-based and Alternative-based Approach – CORRIGENDUM

愿意以参考依赖偏好支付：基于属性与基于替代方法的比较分析——CORRIGENDUM

Manlin Cui,Chengyan Yue,Erin L. Treiber and Matthew Clark

Demand for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives and the Role of Habit Formation and Variety Seeking

植物性肉类替代品的需求以及习惯形成和品种追求的作用

Zachary T. Neuhofer,Jayson L. Lusk and Mario A. Ortez

Production Dynamics and Disruption Responses in the Pork Supply Chain: A Structural Model of Hog and Pig Markets

猪肉供应链中的生产动态与中断响应：猪肉市场结构模型

Ezra Butcher and Lee Schulz

Consumer Preferences for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Versus Bio-Based Treatments of Disposable Dinnerware: A Discrete Choice Experiment

消费者对全氟和多氟烷基物质与生物基一次性餐具处理的偏好：一个离散选择实验

Alicia Rihn,Nicole Labbé,Pralhad Bajgain,Kalavathy Rajan,Gourav Kamboj,Samuel Jackson,Kelly Tiller and Kimberly Jensen

Measuring and Explaining State-Level Heterogeneity in Beef Packing Resilience During the COVID-19 Disruption

衡量和解释COVID-19疫情期间牛肉包装韧性各州异质性

Sunil P. Dhoubhadel,Azzeddine M. Azzam and Binod Khanal

Do Migrants Matter for Farm Efficiency? A Stochastic Frontier Assessment of Rural-Urban Migration in Ghanaian Maize Production

移民对农场效率重要吗？加纳玉米生产中农村-城市迁移的随机前沿评估

Stephen Prah,Bright Owusu Asante,Omphile Temoso and Renato Villano

Crop Insurance Participation and Cover Crop Use: Evidence From Agricultural Resource Management Survey Data

Dylan Turner,Francis Tsiboe,Maria Bowman and Roderick M. Rejesus

Abstract:Historical ambiguity on how cover crop use influences future crop insurance eligibility has been proposed as one explanation for low cover crop adoption rates. However, explicit guidance on cover crop use for crop insurance participants was added in the 2018 Farm Bill. This study uses farm level data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to ascertain whether crop insurance participation influenced adoption of cover crops and to what degree that influence persisted after the 2018 Farm Bill. Estimation of a double hurdle model, combined with a control function approach to address endogeneity, suggests statistically and economically significant effects between crop insurance expenditures and cover crop use at the “extensive margin,” but no statistically significant effect at the “intensive margin.” Estimation on subsets of the data defined by before and after the 2018 Farm Bill suggest that the effect is primarily attributable to participation trends prior to the 2018 Farm Bill. Following the 2018 Farm Bill, no statistically significant effects are observed between cover crop use and crop insurance expenditures.

摘要：关于覆盖作物使用如何影响未来作物保险资格的历史模糊性被提出，被认为是覆盖作物采纳率低的一个原因。然而，2018年农业法案中加入了关于作物保险参与者使用覆盖作物的明确指导。本研究利用农业资源管理调查的农场层面数据，确定作物保险参与是否影响了覆盖作物的采用，以及这种影响在2018年农业法案之后的持续程度。双重门槛模型的估计，结合对照函数方法解决内生性，表明作物保险支出与覆盖作物使用在“广泛边际”之间存在统计和经济显著影响，但在“密集边际”则无统计学显著效应。对2018年农业法案前后定义数据子集的估计表明，这一影响主要归因于2018年农业法案之前的参与趋势。2018年《农业法案》之后，覆盖作物使用与作物保险支出之间未见统计学上显著的影响。

Unraveling Hidden Patterns in Fed Cattle Negotiated Cash Prices Using Machine Learning

Zuyi Wang,Man-Keun Kim ,Man-Keun Kim and Hernan Tejeda

Abstract:The decline in fed cattle cash sales and its impact on price discovery are concerning. This study extends existing literature by utilizing machine learning to explore factors, particularly decision trees and random forests, to explore factors influencing fed cattle price ranges, complementing traditional regression analyses. These models uncover hidden patterns and provide additional insights into the cattle market. Key variables such as weight range, head count, and trade location, are found to be associated with price ranges. Notably, the weight range emerges as the primary variable influencing the price range, with smaller weight ranges linked to lower price ranges.

摘要：联邦牛只现金销售的下降及其对价格发现的影响令人担忧。本研究通过机器学习扩展现有文献，探索因素，特别是决策树和随机森林，探讨影响饲养牛价格区间的因素，补充传统回归分析。这些模型揭示了隐藏的模式，并为牛只市场提供了更多洞见。关键变量如体重区间、人数和贸易地点与价格区间相关。值得注意的是，重量区间是影响价格区间的主要变量，而较小的重量区间与较低的价格区间相关。

Convergence Bias in Lean Hog Futures

Kyoungin Choe and Barry K. Goodwin

Abstract:We examine the convergence of lean hog futures and cash prices, focusing on the thinning of negotiated cash markets. Using daily Livestock Mandatory Reporting data from 2001 to 2024, we confirm significant non-convergence between negotiated and futures prices over the past two decades. Regression results show that as the share of negotiated transactions declines, the absolute basis increases, emphasizing the critical role of negotiated markets in ensuring convergence. These findings highlight concerns about the reliability of negotiated prices as a benchmark for contracts and offer valuable insights for price risk management in the hog industry.

摘要：我们考察瘦猪期货与现金价格的趋同，重点关注协商现金市场的趋严。利用2001年至2024年的每日牲畜强制报告数据，我们确认过去二十年间议定价格与期货价格之间存在显著不一致。回归分析结果显示，随着谈判交易比例下降，绝对基准增加，凸显了谈判市场在确保趋同中的关键作用。这些发现凸显了人们对协商价格作为合同基准可靠性的担忧，并为养猪行业的价格风险管理提供了宝贵见解。

Demand for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives and the Role of Habit Formation and Variety Seeking

Zachary T. Neuhofer,Jayson L. Lusk and Mario A. Ortez

Abstract:Novel plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) have the potential to disrupt traditional meat industries, but only if consumers substitute PBMAs for meat over time. This study uses weekly household scanner data from 2018 to 2020, to estimate demand for PBMAs in the ground meat market. We use a basket-based demand approach by estimating a multivariate logit model (MVL) to determine cross-product relationships between PBMAs, ground turkey, ground chicken, and ground beef, while simultaneously exploring the role of prior consumption habits and demographics on demand. The only demographic characteristic affecting PBMA demand is the household education level of having a college degree when controlling for other factors. We found no significant seasonal difference in purchasing patterns, after controlling for cross-product effects, prior purchases, and demographics. Demand for PBMAs is driven by habit formation rather than variety seeking, as higher past purchases of PBMAs lead to a higher likelihood of current PBMA purchases. Consumers with higher past ground beef purchases are less likely to choose PBMAs, suggesting growth of this new product is coming from consumers on the margin rather than from heavy beef buyers substituting away from their traditional purchases. PBMAs and ground beef are utility complements with all meat products, suggesting that traditional meat and PBMA companies, along with retailers, should explore synergies in product marketing and offerings.

摘要：新型植物肉替代品（PBMAs）有潜力颠覆传统肉类产业，但前提是消费者随着时间推移将PBMA替代肉类。本研究利用2018年至2020年间的每周家庭扫描数据，估算末肉市场对PBMA的需求。我们采用基于篮子的需求方法，通过估算多元logit模型（MVL）来确定PBMA、火鸡末、鸡末和牛肉末之间的跨产品关系，同时探讨既往消费习惯和按需人口统计学在需求中的作用。影响PBMA需求的唯一人口特征是家庭教育水平，若考虑其他因素。控制跨产品效应、先前购买和人口统计后，我们未发现季节性购买模式的显著差异。PBMA的需求更多是由习惯形成驱动，而非追求多样性，因为过去购买PBMA的次数增加，导致当前购买的可能性也更高。过去牛肉末购买量较高的消费者更不愿意选择PBMA，这表明这一新产品的增长来自边缘消费者，而非大量牛肉购买者取代传统购买。PBMA和牛肉末是所有肉类产品的实用补充，这表明传统肉类和PBMA公司以及零售商应在产品营销和产品供应中探索协同效应。

Production Dynamics and Disruption Responses in the Pork Supply Chain: A Structural Model of Hog and Pig Markets

Ezra Butcher and Lee Schulz

Abstract:Analysis of feeder and early weaned pig markets, important segments in pork production, is nearly nonexistent. We derive and estimate a structural econometric model relating demand and supply for market hogs, feeder pigs, and early weaned pigs. Estimates from the econometric model predict how disruptions are transmitted through hog and pig markets. Results indicate that hog and pig markets are most sensitive to hog processing plant utilization relative to capacity and that this sensitivity has increased compared to prior estimates. A set of counterfactual scenarios quantify the effects of shocks to hog processing capacity, wholesale pork demand, and supply response.

摘要：对猪养和早断奶猪市场——猪肉生产中的重要细分市场——的分析几乎不存在。我们推导并估算了一个结构性计量经济模型，将市场猪、饲养猪和早断奶猪的需求与供给联系起来。计量经济学模型的估计预测了扰动如何通过猪和猪市场传递。结果显示，猪和猪市场对养猪加工厂利用率相对于产能最为敏感，且这种敏感度相较于先前估计有所提升。一组反事实情景量化了冲击对猪肉加工能力、批发猪肉需求和供应反应的影响。

Consumer Preferences for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Versus Bio-Based Treatments of Disposable Dinnerware: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Alicia Rihn,Nicole Labbé,Pralhad Bajgain,Kalavathy Rajan,Gourav Kamboj,Samuel Jackson,Kelly Tiller and Kimberly Jensen

Abstract:Alternative disposable dinnerware treatments to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are under development. A discrete choice experiment of 1,304 U.S. consumers addressed the market’s response to bio-based alternatives. Information nudges were used to assess the impact of health and environmental information on behavior. Data were analyzed using mixed logit models. Bio-based treated plates generated premiums compared to the PFAS-treated plates. Participants exposed to either environmental or health information were willing to pay a price premium of $2.0-$2.12 for bio-based treatments. Both information nudges generated premiums for the USDA Certified Bio-based products relative to the control.

摘要：针对全氟烷基和多氟烷基物质（PFAS）的替代一次性餐具处理方法正在开发中。一项针对1304名美国消费者的离散选择实验，探讨了市场对生物基替代品的反应。信息推动被用于评估健康和环境信息对行为的影响。数据采用混合logit模型进行分析。生物基处理板相比PFAS处理板提高了保费。接触环境信息或健康信息的参与者愿意为生物基治疗支付2.0-2.12美元的价格溢价。这两项数据都推高了美国农业部认证生物基产品的保费相较于对照组。

Measuring and Explaining State-Level Heterogeneity in Beef Packing Resilience During the COVID-19 Disruption

Sunil P. Dhoubhadel,Azzeddine M. Azzam and Binod Khanal

Abstract:The USDA’s resilience strategy of subsidizing small meat-packer entry has prompted studies on plant size, market structure, and resilience, each study employing a different conception of resilience. None accounts for the duration and speed of slaughter downturns and recoveries. We account for these factors by developing metrics across 35 U.S. states and estimating how the metrics vary with plant size, labor conditions, and COVID-19 policies. We find medium-sized plants enhanced resilience during COVID-19, raising questions about the USDA’s narrow focus on smaller plants. This highlights the need for more nuanced strategies to strengthen the resilience of the beef processing sector.

摘要：美国农业部补贴小型肉类加工厂进入的韧性战略，促使开展了关于工厂规模、市场结构和韧性的研究，每项研究采用了不同的韧性概念。没有一项研究涵盖屠宰量的持续时间和速度，无论是减少还是恢复。我们通过在美国35个州开发指标，并估算这些指标因工厂规模、劳动力条件和COVID-19政策的变化而加以考虑。我们发现中型工厂在COVID-19期间增强了韧性，这引发了对USDA对小型工厂狭隘关注的质疑。这凸显了加强牛肉加工部门韧性的更细致策略的必要性。

Do Migrants Matter for Farm Efficiency? A Stochastic Frontier Assessment of Rural-Urban Migration in Ghanaian Maize Production

Stephen Prah,Bright Owusu Asante,Omphile Temoso and Renato Villano

Abstract:While migration can provide economic opportunities and remittances for rural households, it may also lead to loss of skilled labor and disrupt farm operations. This study examines the impact of rural-urban migration on technical efficiency in Ghana, using robust methodology that combines propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences, selectivity-corrected stochastic frontier model. Analysis is based on panel data from 1,056 farm maize households. Results show that migration significantly improves technical efficiency and maize output. Migration history, farm characteristics, and education shape this relationship. Strengthening extension services and promoting the best farming practices are vital for improving smallholder productivity and efficiency.

摘要：虽然迁徙为农村家庭带来了经济机会和汇款，但也可能导致熟练劳动力流失并扰乱农场运营。本研究采用结合倾向评分匹配与差异中差异、选择性修正的随机前沿模型的稳健方法，考察了农村-城市迁移对加纳技术效率的影响。分析基于1056户玉米农户的面板数据。结果显示，迁移显著提升了技术效率和玉米产量。迁徙历史、农场特征和教育背景塑造了这种关系。加强推广服务和推广最佳农业实践对于提高小农生产力和效率至关重要。

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