张永凯,游美怡 | 黄河流域农业经济韧性:水平测度、时空差异与障碍因子

作者信息:

摘要:

黄河流域是中国重要的农业经济地带，在农业强国建设中具有不可替代的战略地位。研究其农业经济韧性对保障国家粮食安全，推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展意义深远。首先从风险抵御能力、适应调整能力和重构创新能力3个方面，构建农业经济韧性测度指标体系；然后采用泰尔指数和莫兰指数，研究黄河流域农业经济韧性的时空差异；最后运用障碍度模型，分析该地区农业经济韧性的障碍因子。研究结果表明：2013—2022年黄河流域的农业经济韧性整体实现稳步上升；在空间上存在集聚效应，时空差异明显，上游地区农业经济韧性较弱，中游地区较为稳定，下游农业经济韧性较强；第一产业总产值、农业机械总动力和农林牧副渔业增加值成为黄河流域农业经济韧性发展水平最重要的障碍因子。

关键词:

黄河流域; 农业经济韧性; 时空差异; 障碍因子

Resilience of Agricultural Economy in Yellow River Basin: Level Measurement, Spatiotemporal Differences and Obstacle Factors

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin constitutes a vital agricultural economic zone in China, holding irreplaceable strategic significance in building a strong agricultural nation. Investigating its agricultural economic resilience carries profound implications for safeguarding national food security and promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Firstly, an evaluation index system for agricultural economic resilience from three dimensions was constructed : risk resistance capability, adaptive adjustment capacity, and reconstructive innovation capacity. Subsequently, Theil index and Moran's index were employed to analyze spatiotemporal differences in agricultural economic resilience across the nine provinces. Finally, an obstacle degree model was applied to identify constraining factors. The findings are as follows: From 2013 to 2022, agricultural economic resilience in the region demonstrates an overall steady improvement. Significant spatial clustering effects and temporal-spatial disparities are observed: resilience remains weaker in upstream areas, relatively stable in midstream regions, and stronger in downstream zones. The gross output value of the primary industry, total agricultural machinery power, and added value of agriculture-forestry-animal husbandry-fishery emerges as the most critical obstacle factors. To address these findings, policymakers should strengthen targeted support measures, optimize agricultural industrial structures, and enhance coordinated regional development strategies.

Key words:

The Yellow River Basin;agricultural economic resilience; spatiotemporal differences; obstacle factors

中国技术经济学会《科技和产业》编辑部2026年7月8日