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【方正农业丨中期策略】26H2看好牧业涨价,生猪产能加速去化

  • 2026-06-18 17:15:33
【方正农业丨中期策略】26H2看好牧业涨价,生猪产能加速去化
报告摘要

牧业：看好肉牛与奶牛价格26Q4明显上涨

肉牛方面，看好26H2-27H1国内+进口牛肉两方面供应收缩，有望带动价格进一步上涨。
奶业方面，我们认为当前行业后备牛已经出现下降，且下降趋势将至少持续到26H2。我们认为由于奶牛生产周期较长，本轮去化传导时长超预期漫长，但是仍然看好Q3往后供应将逐渐减少，26Q4奶价将逐步开启上涨，且奶价在未来2-3年呈现长期趋势震荡上涨。
生猪养殖：产能去化正当时，26Q4有望加速
以周期视角来看，本轮周期行业盈利期自24Q2-25Q3，因此26H1以来的低猪价是周期下行期的延续。根据历次周期经验，今年剩下的时间大概率亏损延续；随着下半年仔猪价格下跌，产能或将加速去化，看好27年猪价明显上涨。
蛋鸡：周期反转兑现，看好鸡苗价格回升
26Q2蛋价大幅回升：得益于25年的产能去化，近期蛋价大幅回升。我们预计随着下半年蛋价继续上涨，行业补栏积极性回升下，26H2鸡苗价格将持续上涨。
风险提示：
肉牛/奶牛行业政策变动风险；养殖行业产能去化不及预期风险；消费需求弱对农产品价格拖累风险；原材料价格波动风险。
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  137. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/driver/File.php ( 2.41 KB )
  138. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-template/src/template/contract/DriverInterface.php ( 0.86 KB )
  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/32b793ebdcbdb96aeb8bb24c123b0bef.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.001279s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=h_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.002037s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.001066s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.004778s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001851s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000851s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001894s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 542656 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001341s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1782317800 WHERE `id` = 542656 [ RunTime:0.012879s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001587s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542656 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.003553s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 542656 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001304s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542656 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001906s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542656 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.002483s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 542656 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.002498s ]
0.242489s