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Editor's Choice

Conservation auctions: An online double constraint reverse auction experiment

保护拍卖：在线双约束反向拍卖实验

Adrien Coiffard and others

Abstract：Conservation auctions are designed to allocate payments for environmental services to voluntary farmers. The auctioneer may announce either the maximum number of contracts (target-constrained auction) or, more commonly, the total budget available (budget-constrained auction). Building on previous work that compared these two formats, we introduce a new double-constraint auction, where both constraints—set at the same levels as in the benchmarks—are simultaneously disclosed to participants. Using the same experimental methodology, we assess performance consistent with a generic policy objective: maximizing environmental benefits while minimizing expenditures. On average, the double-constraint auction outperforms both target- and budget-constrained formats.

摘要：保护拍卖旨在向自愿农民分配环境服务费用。拍卖师可以宣布合同的最大数量（目标受限拍卖），或更常见的是可用总预算（预算受限拍卖）。在之前比较这两种格式的工作的基础上，我们引入了一种新的双重约束拍卖，其中两种约束（设定在与基准相同的水平）同时向参与者披露。使用相同的实验方法，我们评估与通用政策目标一致的绩效：最大化环境效益，同时最小化支出。平均而言，双重约束拍卖的表现优于目标约束和预算约束的形式。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag002

Strategic responses to ban enforcement uncertainty: Antibiotic application decisions in plant agriculture

Strategic responses to ban enforcement uncertainty: Antibiotic application decisions in plant agriculture

Khashi Ghorbani and Shady S Atallah

Abstract：The rise of antibiotic resistance in plant agriculture, combined with limited disease management options and potential antibiotic bans, complicates growers' disease management decision-making. We develop a dynamic model of optimal antibiotic use under uncertainty about ban enforcement in the case of apple fire blight. We find that proactive growers who adjust to anticipated bans overexploit antibiotic efficacy and gain benefits over business-as-usual growers. However, if a government fails to enforce an announced ban, these proactive growers incur losses. The magnitude of these losses is nonlinear with respect to the value of the crop in question. We generate loss estimates for a range of apple crop values and show that regulatory uncertainty can have negative, neutral, or positive unintended impacts on growers.

摘要：植物农业中抗生素耐药性的上升，加上有限的疾病管理选择和潜在的抗生素禁令，使种植者的疾病管理决策变得复杂化。我们开发了一个在苹果火疫病禁令执行不确定的情况下最佳抗生素使用的动态模型。我们发现，根据预期禁令进行调整的积极主动的种植者会过度利用抗生素的功效，并比一切照常的种植者获得更多利益。然而，如果政府未能执行已宣布的禁令，这些积极主动的种植者就会蒙受损失。这些损失的大小与相关作物的价值呈非线性关系。我们对一系列苹果作物价值进行了损失估计，并表明监管不确定性可能会对种植者产生负面、中性或正面的意外影响。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf068

Can reducing technical inefficiencies of pesticides achieve environmental impact targets? The case of Dutch arable farms

减少农药技术效率低下能否实现环境影响目标？荷兰耕地农场案例

Emmanuel Ahovi and others

Abstract：Farmers manage each type of pesticide differently, given the varying risks they address. As both damage-abating and polluting inputs, we have incorporated their negative impacts into a non-parametric framework to estimate the technical inefficiency of different pesticides and environmental inefficiency of Dutch arable farms from 2011 to 2021. Results suggest that farmers are more efficient in using insecticides rather than fungicides, herbicides and other pesticides, and have a higher potential to reduce negative pesticide impacts on aquatic organisms compared to soil organisms. However, even with full efficiency, the vast majority of farmers would not meet acceptable pesticide impact levels that are seen as sustainable in the long run.

摘要：鉴于每种农药所面临的风险不同，农民对每种农药的管理方式也不同。作为减害投入和污染投入，我们将其负面影响纳入非参数框架，以估计 2011 年至 2021 年不同农药的技术效率低下和荷兰耕地的环境效率低下。结果表明，农民使用杀虫剂的效率高于杀菌剂、除草剂和其他农药，并且与土壤生物相比，更有潜力减少农药对水生生物的负面影响。然而，即使充分发挥效率，绝大多数农民也无法达到可接受的农药影响水平，而从长远来看，这种影响水平被认为是可持续的。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag001

Combining stated and revealed preferences for valuing attributes associated with organic chicken meat

结合所陈述和透露的对有机鸡肉相关属性的评价偏好

Jose Eduardo Ribeiro and others

Abstract：This paper examines consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for attributes of organic chicken meat in the UK, a product experiencing increasing popularity both domestically and internationally. We combine stated preference (SP) data from a discrete choice experiment with revealed preference (RP) data from supermarket scanner transactions in a joint estimation framework. This approach mitigates common limitations of analysing SP and RP data separately, such as hypothetical bias in SP and multicollinearity in RP. Using a heteroskedastic conditional logit model with interaction terms, we estimate WTP values that account for both preference heterogeneity and scale differences across datasets. Results indicate that consumers assign a substantial premium to the organic attribute, with joint estimates approximately 9 per cent higher than those based solely on SP data and more than double those from RP. These findings underscore the importance of integrating SP and RP data to inform evidence-based food policy.

摘要：本文研究了英国消费者对有机鸡肉属性的支付意愿（WTP），有机鸡肉在国内外越来越受欢迎。我们将来自离散选择实验的陈述偏好（SP）数据与来自超市扫描仪交易的显示偏好（RP）数据结合在联合估计框架中。这种方法减轻了分别分析 SP 和 RP 数据的常见局限性，例如 SP 中的假设偏差和 RP 中的多重共线性。使用具有交互项的异方差条件 Logit 模型，我们估计了考虑了数据集偏好异质性和规模差异的 WTP 值。结果表明，消费者对有机属性给予了很高的评价，联合估计比仅基于 SP 数据的估计高出约 9%，是 RP 数据的两倍多。这些发现强调了整合 SP 和 RP 数据以告知循证粮食政策的重要性。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag003

Review Article

Time preferences in rural economies: A systematic global review

农村经济的时间偏好：系统的全球回顾

Vanessa Berghoff and Daniel Hermann

Abstract：Time preferences shape decisions about resource use, investment and sustainability, yet evidence on how they are measured in rural field settings remains fragmented. This systematic literature review covers 67 studies eliciting time preferences among rural populations, focusing on farmers and fishers. We map the theoretical models used, compare elicitation methods and experimental designs, and synthesise reported patterns. The review documents substantial heterogeneity in how time preferences are conceptualised and measured, and highlights recurring methodological and reporting challenges that limit comparability across contexts. For more reliable, replicable and policy-relevant research, we propose a structured reporting guide.

摘要：时间偏好影响着资源使用、投资和可持续性的决策，但关于如何在农村地区衡量这些偏好的证据仍然支离破碎。本系统文献综述涵盖了 67 项研究，揭示了农村人口的时间偏好，重点关注农民和渔民。我们绘制了所使用的理论模型，比较启发方法和实验设计，并综合报告的模式。该评论记录了时间偏好的概念化和测量方式的巨大异质性，并强调了限制跨环境可比性的反复出现的方法和报告挑战。为了获得更可靠、可复制且与政策相关的研究，我们提出了结构化报告指南。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf070

Special Issue Article

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

通过碳减排政策补充生物燃料指令可以带来水质协同效益

Xinxin Fan and others

Abstract：Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

摘要：生物燃料指令可以以多种方式影响环境，可能是积极的，也可能是消极的，包括通过替代化石燃料影响生命周期温室气体（GHG）排放，由于伴随的土地利用变化而影响土壤碳储量，以及由于化肥需求和用作原料的作物组合的变化而影响水质。为了在生物燃料指令存在的情况下实现预期的环境成果，必须采取额外的政策工具来补充该指令。我们开发了一个综合且空间明确的生态系统经济模型框架，以分析替代政策的成本效益，以实现美国农业和燃料部门温室气体减排的预期目标，并将墨西哥湾硝酸盐浸出减少到低于美国玉米乙醇和/或纤维素乙醇指令所能达到的水平。我们发现，虽然玉米乙醇强制规定降低了温室气体排放量，但由于玉米产量的扩大，硝酸盐浸出增加了；相对于玉米乙醇指令，纤维素乙醇指令可以降低温室气体排放和硝酸盐浸出，但需要额外的碳和硝酸盐价格才能实现预期的温室气体减排和硝酸盐减排目标。我们还发现，生物燃料指令与单独的温室气体减排目标相结合会带来巨大的硝酸盐减排协同效益，但单独的硝酸盐减排目标在减少温室气体排放方面效果较差。与单独实施每项政策相比，将温室气体标准与硝酸盐标准相结合可以以更低的碳和硝酸盐价格实现温室气体和硝酸盐减排目标。我们的研究结果表明，忽视政策协同效益可能会高估实现政策目标所需的温室气体和硝酸盐价格以及更高的政策成本。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf064

Special Issue Article

Import substitution and Russian food independence

进口替代和俄罗斯食品独立

Linde Goetz and others

Abstract：We investigate whether Russia's change in trade policy from increasingly WTO compliant, pre-WTO accession policy to being restrictive, discretionary and WTO non-compliant has changed price volatility on the domestic market. DCC-MGARCH model results suggest doubling of conditional volatility and volatility correlation between pork producer prices along Russia's pork supply chain. A volatility regime switch is confirmed by the regime switching dynamic correlations model. Our findings show that contrary to their objective, discretionary trade restrictions may increase price volatility in the domestic market. Trade restrictions need to be redesigned such that rule-based, WTO-conform trade policies are implemented instead.

摘要：我们调查俄罗斯的贸易政策从日益符合世贸组织、加入世贸组织之前的政策向限制性、随意性和不符合世贸组织规定的政策转变是否改变了国内市场的价格波动。 DCC-MGARCH 模型结果表明，俄罗斯猪肉供应链上的猪肉生产者价格之间的条件波动性和波动性相关性加倍。波动率状态切换由状态切换动态相关模型来确认。我们的研究结果表明，与他们的目标相反，随意的贸易限制可能会增加国内市场的价格波动。需要重新设计贸易限制，以便实施基于规则、符合世贸组织的贸易政策。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf067

Special Issue Article

Firm-level innovation, productivity, and efficiency in riskful business environments: A case study of agribusiness in El Salvador

风险商业环境中的企业层面创新、生产力和效率：萨尔瓦多农业企业案例研究

Gabriel Rosero and others

Abstract：Agribusinesses contribute 40-70 percent of the total value added in the food value chain of developing countries; however, they remain under-researched. We investigate whether firm-level innovation improves economic performance using World Bank Enterprise Surveys for El Salvador. We extend the Cremo-Duguet-Mairesse model with a selectivity-corrected stochastic frontier and a metafrontier framework. We find that innovation increases potential total sales and reduces the technology gap, but does not improve technical efficiency. This suggests that, without complementary managerial and institutional support—particularly in contexts where insecurity imposes high operational and opportunity costs—the benefits of innovation do not necessarily lead to productivity gains.

摘要：农业企业贡献了发展中国家食品价值链总附加值的 40-70%；然而，它们的研究仍然不足。我们利用世界银行萨尔瓦多企业调查来调查企业层面的创新是否可以提高经济绩效。我们使用选择性校正随机前沿和元前沿框架扩展了 Cremo-Duguet-Mairesse 模型。我们发现创新增加了潜在的总销售额并缩小了技术差距，但并没有提高技术效率。这表明，如果没有补充性的管理和机构支持——特别是在不安全因素造成高昂运营成本和机会成本的情况下——创新的好处并不一定会带来生产力的提高。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf069