Fertile grounds: Navigating the environmental impact of fertilizer consumption

肥沃的土地：应对化肥消耗对环境的影响

Jayash Paudel

Predicting replication outcomes and generalizability of results

预测复制结果和结果的普遍性

Anna Dreber

Agricultural R&D impact evaluation: Insights from three decades of research impact assessment in agriculture

农业研发影响评估：三十年农业研究影响评估的见解

Bouali Guesmi and José Maria Gil

From choice to context: Rethinking food environments, consumer agency and policy action

从选择到背景：重新思考食品环境、消费者机构和政策行动

Vincenzina Caputo

Nudging consumers toward healthier diets: Evidence from the Food Choice App in India

推动消费者采取更健康的饮食：来自印度Food Choice应用程序的证据

Matty Demont and others

Quality-based pricing in a fish auction market: Are sellers' expectations met?

鱼类拍卖市场中基于质量的定价：是否满足卖家的期望？

Geir Sogn-Grundvag and Dengjun Zhang

A comprehensive analysis of urban-rural differences: The case of food consumption in China

城乡差异的综合分析：来自中国食品消费的证据

Vardges Hovhannisyan and others

Pesticide taxation and the adoption of low-input cropping management practices using a hidden Markov model

农药税和采用隐马尔可夫模型的低投入种植管理实践

Esther Devilliers and others

Organic cultivation and farmland prices: Does certification matter?

有机种植和农田价格：认证重要吗？

Stefan Seifert and others

Consumers' heterogeneity estimates for sustainable food attributes: Evidence from three European countries

消费者对可持续食品属性的异质性估计：来自三个欧洲国家的证据

Andrea Pellegrini and others

Balancing health benefits and risks: Consumer responses to seafood recalls

平衡健康益处和风险：消费者对海鲜召回的反应

Xi He

Land consolidation and interhousehold land-use conflicts: Insights from China

土地整理和家庭间土地使用冲突：来自中国的见解

Zhihui Liang and Wanglin Ma

To be(tween) or not to be(tween)? Mixed-subject designs in preference elicitation

成为（补间）还是不成为（补间）？偏好诱导中的混合主题设计

Andreas C Drichoutis and others

Fertile grounds: Navigating the environmental impact of fertilizer consumption

肥沃的土地：应对化肥消耗对环境的影响

Jayash Paudel

Abstract：This article takes advantage of the economic geography of fertilizer production to show that a 10 per cent increase in the use of fertilizers is associated with a 3.09 per cent increase in agricultural nitrous oxide emissions over a 15-year long period from 2006 to 2020, and a 15.28 per cent increase in water withdrawals for agricultural purposes. Findings further indicate that the effects of fertilizer consumption on crop water footprints and agricultural methane emissions are not statistically distinguishable from zero. A back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals that these fertilizer-induced environmental externalities lead to approximately 15,450 annual deaths worldwide through nitrous oxide emissions.

摘要：本文利用化肥生产的经济地理原理表明，在 2006 年至 2020 年的 15 年间，化肥使用量增加 10%，农业一氧化二氮排放量增加 3.09%，农业用水量增加 15.28%。研究结果进一步表明，肥料的影响 农作物水足迹消耗和农业甲烷排放在统计上与零没有区别。粗略计算显示，这些化肥引发的环境外部性每年导致全球约 15,450 人因一氧化二氮排放而死亡。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf033

Predicting replication outcomes and generalizability of results

预测复制结果和结果的普遍性

Anna Dreber

Abstract：I discuss reasons for why false-positive results are produced and published and report the results from large-scale replication projects where laboratory experiments are redone with new data to test the same hypotheses as in the original studies. In some of this work my collaborators and I have also added prediction markets and decision markets to study whether researchers can predict replication outcomes. The results suggest some but not perfect wisdom of crowds. I also discuss potential solutions to replication problems, including potential credibility problems and solutions for nonexperimental results.

摘要：我讨论了产生和发表假阳性结果的原因，并报告了大规模复制项目的结果，在这些项目中，用新数据重新进行实验室实验，以测试与原始研究中相同的假设。在其中一些工作中，我和我的合作者还添加了预测市场和决策市场，以研究研究人员是否可以预测复制结果。 结果表明了一些但并不完美的群体智慧。我还讨论了复制问题的潜在解决方案，包括潜在的可信度问题和非实验结果的解决方案。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf035

Agricultural R&D impact evaluation: Insights from three decades of research impact assessment in agriculture

农业研发影响评估：三十年农业研究影响评估的见解

Bouali Guesmi and José Maria Gil

Abstract：Agricultural research and development (R&D) has played a crucial role in improving agricultural productivity, enhancing the resilience of farming system and ensuring food security worldwide. During the last few decades, assessing and understanding the impact of research is of increasing importance in light of the need to provide public research organizations with reliable information on how R&D investments are generating impacts. The culture of R&D impact assessment is indeed still developing, requiring a multifaceted approach to the consideration of the economic, social and environmental dimensions. This paper aims to provide a synthesis of three decades of agricultural research impact assessment at institutional governance level, highlighting its broader implications for the agri-food sector, the lessons learned and future directions.

摘要：农业研发（R＆D）在提高农业生产力、增强农业系统的弹性和确保全球粮食安全方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在过去的几十年中，鉴于需要向公共研究组织提供有关研发投资方式的可靠信息，评估和理解研究的影响变得越来越重要。 正在产生影响。研发影响评估文化确实仍在发展中，需要采取多方面的方法来考虑经济、社会和环境层面。本文旨在综合介绍三十年来农业研究在机构治理层面的影响评估，强调其对农业食品部门的更广泛影响、经验教训 学到的知识和未来的方向。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf037

From choice to context: Rethinking food environments, consumer agency and policy action

从选择到背景：重新思考食品环境、消费者机构和政策行动

Vincenzina Caputo

Abstract：Traditional measures of food environments, such as availability, often center on geographic proximity, but in the digital era, proximity is less of a constraint, as consumers browse thousands of food options online. I extend the concept of availability to include what consumers see when buying food online. Using web-scraped data on food-away-from-home offerings from Uber Eats in Michigan, I map retailer presence, product offerings and prices, linking them to nutritional profiles and carbon emissions. I find that the digital food environment is dominated by nutritionally unbalanced, calory-dense and carbon-intensive options. When choice architecture constrains available options, even individuals with strong health and sustainability preferences are unable to make choices aligned with their dietary goals. As these environments are shaped by supply and demand, dual policy strategies are needed to reform what is offered, promoted and priced.

摘要：食物环境的传统衡量标准（例如供应情况）通常以地理邻近性为中心，但在数字时代，随着消费者在线浏览数千种食物选择，邻近性不再是一个限制。我将可用性的概念扩展到包括消费者在网上购买食品时看到的内容。我利用从密歇根州 Uber Eats 的 Uber Eats 优食网站上抓取到的外卖食品数据，绘制了零售商地图 存在、产品供应和价格，将它们与营养成分和碳排放联系起来。我发现数字食品环境主要是营养不平衡、热量密集和碳密集的选择。当选择架构限制可用选项时，即使是具有强烈健康和可持续发展偏好的个人也无法做出与其饮食相符的选择 目标。由于这些环境是由供给和需求决定的，因此需要双重政策策略来改革所提供、促销和定价的产品。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf041

Nudging consumers toward healthier diets: Evidence from the Food Choice App in India

推动消费者采取更健康的饮食：来自印度Food Choice应用程序的证据

Matty Demont and others

Abstract：We develop the Food Choice App (FCA) based on the Gastronomic Systems Research (GSR) framework to study how behavioral change communication (BCC) on healthier diets influences diet planning under income shocks. A sample of 192 low- and middle-income households in West Bengal use the FCA to plan their diets by allocating a randomized weekly food budget among 162 Bengali dishes across five eating occasions over seven weekdays. Budget constraints drive carbohydrate prioritization, but BCC exposure and women's empowerment significantly increase dietary protein density. Findings underscore the importance of targeted nudges across multiple levels of the Gastronomic System to promote healthier diets.

摘要：我们基于美食系统研究(GSR)框架开发了食物选择应用程序(FCA)，以研究更健康饮食的行为改变沟通(BCC)如何影响收入冲击下的饮食计划。西孟加拉邦192个中低收入家庭的样本使用FCA来计划他们的饮食，方法是在五个用餐场合的162种孟加拉菜肴中随机分配每周食物预算。预算约束驱动碳水化合物优先化，但BCC接触和女性赋权显著提高膳食蛋白质密度。研究结果强调了在美食系统的多个层面采取有针对性的推送措施以促进更健康饮食的重要性。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf057

Quality-based pricing in a fish auction market: Are sellers' expectations met?

鱼类拍卖市场中基于质量的定价：是否满足卖家的期望？

Geir Sogn-Grundvag and Dengjun Zhang

Abstract：This study investigates producer motivations for quality-enhancing production by comparing hedonic models for auctioned cod in Norway. Transaction prices reflecting buyer valuations of specific quality attributes are compared with sellers' reserve prices reflecting their price expectations for the same attributes. High-quality attributes obtain the highest prices, but the spread between transaction and reserve prices for these attributes is negative, indicating that sellers' price expectations are not met. However, the spread is positive for lower quality attributes, suggesting that keeping quality below the highest quality level represents the economically most sustainable way of harvesting.

摘要：本研究通过比较挪威拍卖鳕鱼的价值模型，探讨生产者进行质量提升生产的动机。将反映买家对特定质量属性估值的市场价格与反映卖家对相同属性价格预期的储备价格进行比较。高质量属性获得最高价格，但这些属性的交易价格与储备价格之间的价差为负，表明未达到卖方的价格预期。然而，对于较低质量属性，价差为正，表明将质量保持在最高质量水平以下是经济上最可持续的收获方式。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf020

A comprehensive analysis of urban-rural differences: The case of food consumption in China

城乡差异的综合分析：来自中国食品消费的证据

Vardges Hovhannisyan and others

Abstract：Rapid urbanization and rural-to-urban migration in China have led to significant dietary changes and greater reliance on Western foods. Previous studies have recognized the importance of urbanization but have overlooked key aspects. They neglect the mechanisms behind these shifts, assume uniform consumer responses, and underestimate the impact of food precommitments and demand for food quality. We analyze the impact of urbanization on food consumption using a Generalized Exact Affine Stone Index model, building on advancements in consumer theory. Our study highlights how urbanization offers dietary flexibility, while rural consumers tend to have precommitments. Despite data limitations, we assess food accessibility, availability, and consumer lifestyles as factors contributing to urban-rural dietary disparities. As rural incomes increase, consumers become more conscious of food quality, while urban residents consider further quality improvements less significant. Greater food accessibility and shifts in lifestyle affect dietary variations observed between urban and rural areas, where widening lifestyle gaps reduce quantity disparities while increasing quality gaps. Grasping these dynamics is essential for tackling food security, sustainability, and public health, as urbanization aims to reduce poverty.

摘要：中国快速的城市化和从农村到城市的人口流动导致了饮食结构的显着变化以及对西方食品的更大依赖。先前的研究已经认识到城市化的重要性，但忽略了关键方面。他们忽视了这些转变背后的机制，假设消费者反应一致，并低估了食品预先承诺和食品质量需求的影响。我们 基于消费者理论的进步，使用广义精确仿射石指数模型分析城市化对食品消费的影响。我们的研究强调了城市化如何提供饮食灵活性，而农村消费者往往有预先承诺。尽管数据有限，我们仍评估了食品的可及性、可用性和消费者生活方式，将其作为影响城乡发展的因素。 饮食差异。随着农村收入的增加，消费者对食品质量的意识越来越强，而城市居民则认为质量的进一步提高并不那么重要。食物可及性的提高和生活方式的转变影响了城市和农村地区之间观察到的饮食差异，生活方式差距的扩大缩小了数量差距，同时扩大了质量差距。把握这些动态 对于解决粮食安全、可持续性和公共卫生问题至关重要，因为城市化旨在减少贫困。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf023

Pesticide taxation and the adoption of low-input cropping management practices using a hidden Markov model

农药税和采用隐马尔可夫模型的低投入种植管理实践

Esther Devilliers and others

Abstract：Literature indicates that a significant reduction in farmers' pesticide use requires a change in cropping management practices (CMPs). This article investigates farmers' decision to adopt low-input CMPs and, particularly, how a standard pesticide reduction policy impacts this decision. We propose a hidden Markov model to uncover farmers' latent CMP choice, which is considered as an expected return maximizing choice. Our empirical application suggests that, for low-input CMP adopters, non-economic factors outweigh profitability concerns. Whereas for conventional farmers, the CMP choice depends on the economic context and the CMPs profitability level. Hence, pesticide reduction policies could help conventional farmers into less intensive CMPs, provided that they compensate for the revenue gap. This study contributes to the debate on the use of financial incentives to encourage reluctant farmers to adopt sustainable practices.

摘要：文献表明，农民农药使用量的显着减少需要改变种植管理实践（CMP）。本文调查了农民采用低投入 CMP 的决定，特别是标准农药削减政策如何影响这一决定。我们提出了一个隐马尔可夫模型来揭示农民潜在的 CMP 选择，这被视为预期回报 最大化选择。我们的实证应用表明，对于低投入 CMP 采用者来说，非经济因素超过了盈利能力的担忧。而对于传统农民来说，CMP 的选择取决于经济背景和 CMP 的盈利水平。因此，农药减少政策可以帮助传统农民进行不太密集的 CMP，只要它们能够弥补收入差距。 这项研究促进了关于使用财政激励措施来鼓励不情愿的农民采取可持续做法的辩论。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf025

Organic cultivation and farmland prices: Does certification matter?

有机种植和农田价格：认证重要吗？

Stefan Seifert and others

Abstract：Organic cultivation offers environmental benefits such as improved soil functioning; however, whether an organic cultivation history capitalizes in farmland values remains unclear. We analyse price differentials between organic and conventional arable land in Brandenburg, Germany, using detailed land transaction data and longitudinal land-use data. Based on a doubly robust approach combining matching and regression, we find on average no price differential between organic and conventional farmland at the time of sale. Investigating effect heterogeneity over time, in space, and by post-sale use indicates that this null effect comprises markups and markdowns for organic farmland.

摘要：有机种植具有环境效益，例如改善土壤功能；然而，有机种植历史是否能利用农田价值仍不清楚。我们利用详细的土地交易数据和纵向土地利用数据分析了德国勃兰登堡有机耕地和传统耕地之间的价格差异。基于结合匹配的双鲁棒方法 通过回归分析，我们发现有机农田和传统农田在出售时平均没有价格差异。对随时间、空间和售后使用的影响异质性的调查表明，这种零效应包括有机农田的涨价和降价。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf026

Consumers' heterogeneity estimates for sustainable food attributes: Evidence from three European countries

消费者对可持续食品属性的异质性估计：来自三个欧洲国家的证据

Andrea Pellegrini and others

Abstract：Semi-parametric estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) distributions for sustainable food attributes are retrieved from data from a stated choice experiment conducted in Germany, Italy and the UK. The focal product is wurstel sausages (aka bratwurst or hot dog sausages). Empirical findings show such attributes are differently appreciated across countries, at least in some of features. The choice data are analysed using a WTP version of the logit-mixed-logit model, which allows for fixed and random coefficients while accommodating correlation effects. The advantages of the model proposed are compared against the standard mixed logit model.

摘要：对可持续食品属性的支付意愿 (WTP) 分布的半参数估计是从在德国、意大利和英国进行的一项规定选择实验的数据中检索的。重点产品是香肠（又名多味香肠或热狗香肠）。实证研究结果表明，不同国家对这些属性的重视程度不同，至少在某些特征上如此。选择数据 使用 logit-mixed-logit 模型的 WTP 版本进行分析，该模型允许固定系数和随机系数，同时适应相关效应。将所提出的模型的优点与标准混合 Logit 模型进行了比较。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf027

Balancing health benefits and risks: Consumer responses to seafood recalls

平衡健康益处和风险：消费者对海鲜召回的反应

Xi He

Abstract：Using weekly NielsenIQ data from 2010 to 2022, we examined the effects of seafood recalls on household purchases of recalled brands and their spillover effects on purchases of unrecalled brands of the same species and unrecalled species. We find that recalls reduced purchases of both recalled and unrecalled brands of the affected species, demonstrating negative within-species spillover effects. We also find that households increased purchases of unrecalled species as a substitute, reflecting positive cross-species spillover effects. These impacts were short-lived: direct impacts on recalled brands lasted approximately 4 weeks, while spillover effects on unrecalled products persisted for only about 1 week.

摘要：我们利用 2010 年至 2022 年每周的 NielsenIQ 数据，研究了海鲜召回对家庭购买召回品牌的影响，以及对购买同一物种的未召回品牌和未召回物种的溢出效应。我们发现，召回减少了受影响物种的召回和未召回品牌的购买量，这表明了物种内的负面溢出效应。我们 还发现家庭增加了未召回物种的购买量作为替代品，反映出积极的跨物种溢出效应。这些影响是短暂的：对召回品牌的直接影响持续了大约 4 周，而对未召回产品的溢出效应仅持续了大约 1 周。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf028

Land consolidation and interhousehold land-use conflicts: Insights from China

土地整理和家庭间土地使用冲突：来自中国的见解

Zhihui Liang and Wanglin Ma

Abstract：This study develops a Theoretical framework to examine how land consolidation affects interhousehold land-use conflicts (LUCs). It shows that land consolidation mitigates disamenity spatial externalities from fragmented land use rights, reducing conflicts over economic land rights. Using survey data of rice farmers from China and a conditional mixed process model, we empirically confirm that land consolidation significantly lowers the likelihood of interhousehold LUCs. The effect is stronger with cooperative institutions but weaker where alternative mechanisms like risk-sharing or clan-based governance exist. The study's findings underscore the importance of integrating institutional support with land consolidation to reduce rural LUCs effectively.

摘要：本研究开发了一个理论框架来研究土地整理如何影响家庭间土地使用冲突（LUC）。结果表明，土地整理缓解了土地使用权分散带来的空间外部性缺陷，减少了经济用地权利的冲突。利用中国稻农的调查数据和条件混合过程模型，我们实证证实了土地整理 显着降低家庭间 LUC 的可能性。合作机构的效果更强，但如果存在风险分担或基于宗族的治理等替代机制，效果则较弱。该研究的结果强调了将机构支持与土地整理相结合以有效减少农村土地利用面积的重要性。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf038

To be(tween) or not to be(tween)? Mixed-subject designs in preference elicitation

成为（补间）还是不成为（补间）？偏好诱导中的混合主题设计

Andreas C Drichoutis and others

Abstract：This study examines consumer preferences for organic and local apples by combining between- and within-subject design characteristics in a second-price auction. Our empirical application combines provision of information regarding local and organic attributes of apples with a tasting stage. We find that a design that combines between- and within-subject elements, a mixed-subject design, results in less noisy willingness-to-pay estimates as well as allows us to uncover significant heterogeneity in elicited premiums that would have been masked if we had drawn inferences from the between-subject or the within-subject treatments in isolation. Results highlight the gains that can be achieved by using a mixed-subject design in experimental auctions.

摘要：本研究通过结合第二价格拍卖中的主题间和主题内的设计特征来调查消费者对有机和本地苹果的偏好。我们的实证应用将提供有关苹果当地和有机属性的信息与品尝阶段结合起来。我们发现，结合主题间和主题内元素的设计，即混合主题设计，会产生 噪音较小的支付意愿估计，也使我们能够发现引起的保费的显着异质性，如果我们单独从受试者间或受试者内的治疗中得出推论，这些异质性就会被掩盖。结果凸显了在实验性拍卖中使用混合主题设计可以实现的收益。

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf039