《中国农业展望报告(2026-2035 年)》发布,粮食稳增、大豆进口首降!

最新发布的全国农业展望报告披露，2026 年我国粮食产量稳步增长，农作物单产持续提升，粮食供给基础进一步筑牢。与此同时，大豆、猪肉、乳制品等农产品进口量预计阶段性回落，果蔬优势出口保持扩容。面对复杂地缘局势与全球粮食贸易波动，国内农业提质增效提速，长期产能布局与品类结构调整同步推进，勾勒出未来十年农业发展新趋势。

注：第一部分为英文文章及音频，第二部分为中英双语文章，后附重点词汇注解

（本文仅用于学习用途，For non-commercial educational use only）

英文文章及音频：（630 Words）

Stable grain output, lower soybean imports forecast for nation in 2026

From: CHINA DAILY

China's grain output is expected to inch up in 2026, while imports of several major agricultural products, particularly soybeans, are projected to decline for the first time in recent years, according to a new agricultural outlook report released on Monday.

The China Agricultural Outlook (2026-2035) report forecasts that the country's grain production will reach 716 million metric tons in 2026, up 0.2 percent year-on-year, while output of oil crops is expected to rise 2.6 percent to 42.04 million tons.

According to the report, continued improvements in crop yields are expected to boost grain production. This year, the average grain yield is projected to reach about 6,000 kilograms per hectare.

"Large-scale improvements in crop productivity will continue to support a stable grain supply," said Xu Shiwei, head of the key laboratory of agricultural monitoring and early warning technology at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Imports of several commodities are projected to decline, while exports of competitive farm products are expected to continue growing. "Soybean imports will fall 6.1 percent from the previous year, marking the first decline in recent years," Xu said.

Pork imports are projected to drop 8.2 percent, while dairy imports are expected to decrease 4.1 percent, according to the report.

China's exports of products such as vegetables and fruits are expected to expand. The report forecasts an export growth rate of 6.4 percent for vegetables and 5 percent for fruits in 2026.

Despite the projected decline in some imports, the report emphasized that international markets remain an important complement to China's agricultural supply, as imports of certain products, such as poultry, are expected to rise.

Li Ganqiong, head of the agricultural monitoring and early-warning research center at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said rising geopolitical risks — including conflict in the Middle East — have pushed up global oil prices, fertilizer costs and shipping expenses, increasing uncertainty in global agricultural production and trade.

"These factors could heighten risks to global food security," Li said, adding that strengthening domestic agricultural production remains crucial to coping with external uncertainties.

Over the longer term, the report projects that China's grain output will continue to climb steadily, reaching 733 million tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035. Over the next decade, grain yield per hectare is expected to increase 6.3 percent.

Grain consumption is forecast to grow slowly before peaking at 842 million tons around 2032, after which it will stabilize and gradually decline, the report said.

As agricultural productivity improves and international competitiveness strengthens, China's reliance on imports of major agricultural commodities is expected to decline, Xu said.

Total grain imports are projected to fall to 115 million tons by 2035, a 25.5 percent drop from the average between 2023 and 2025. Soybean imports are expected to decrease to 82.55 million tons, down 21.5 percent.

The dairy industry is also expected to expand steadily, with milk production projected to reach 45.07 million tons by 2030 and 51.17 million tons by 2035, growing at an average annual rate of 2 percent.

There will be rising demand for fresh milk and increasing use of cheese and butter in beverages and baked goods, according to the report.

In addition, pork production is expected to decline gradually over the next decade as the sector shifts from rapid expansion toward higher-quality and more efficient development.

Pork output is projected to reach 55.11 million tons by 2035, down about 0.5 percent annually on average.

The report, compiled by the agricultural market analysis and early-warning team under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, was first launched in 2014 and has become a key platform for assessing the country's agricultural trends and improving market forecasting and policy planning, the ministry said.

中英双语文章：

2026 年我国粮食产量稳中向好，大豆进口预计回落

Stable grain output, lower soybean imports forecast for nation in 2026

来源：CHINA DAILY

周一发布的最新农业展望报告显示，2026 年中国粮食产量有望小幅增长，多项主要农产品进口量预计下滑，其中大豆进口或将迎来近年首次下降。

China's grain output is expected to inch up in 2026, while imports of several major agricultural products, particularly soybeans, are projected to decline for the first time in recent years, according to a new agricultural outlook report released on Monday.

《中国农业展望报告（2026-2035 年）》预测，2026 年全国粮食总产量将达 7.16 亿吨，同比增长 0.2%；油料作物产量预计提升 2.6%，至 4204 万吨。

The China Agricultural Outlook (2026-2035) report forecasts that the country's grain production will reach 716 million metric tons in 2026, up 0.2 percent year-on-year, while output of oil crops is expected to rise 2.6 percent to 42.04 million tons.

报告指出，农作物单产水平持续提升，将进一步拉动粮食增产。今年，全国粮食平均单产预计达到每公顷约 6000 公斤。

According to the report, continued improvements in crop yields are expected to boost grain production. This year, the average grain yield is projected to reach about 6,000 kilograms per hectare.

农业农村部农业监测预警技术重点实验室负责人许世卫表示，农业生产效率规模化提升，将持续夯实粮食稳定供给基础。

"Large-scale improvements in crop productivity will continue to support a stable grain supply," said Xu Shiwei, head of the key laboratory of agricultural monitoring and early warning technology at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

多项农产品进口规模预计收缩，优势农产品出口则保持增长态势。许世卫介绍，大豆进口量或将同比下降 6.1%，为近年来首次回落。

Imports of several commodities are projected to decline, while exports of competitive farm products are expected to continue growing. "Soybean imports will fall 6.1 percent from the previous year, marking the first decline in recent years," Xu said.

数据显示，猪肉进口预计下降 8.2%，乳制品进口缩减 4.1%。

Pork imports are projected to drop 8.2 percent, while dairy imports are expected to decrease 4.1 percent, according to the report.

与此同时，我国果蔬等特色农产品出口稳步扩容，报告预测 2026 年蔬菜出口增速达 6.4%，水果出口增速为 5%。

China's exports of products such as vegetables and fruits are expected to expand. The report forecasts an export growth rate of 6.4 percent for vegetables and 5 percent for fruits in 2026.

尽管部分农产品进口有所减少，报告强调，国际市场仍是国内农产品供给的重要补充，禽类等品类进口规模预计继续上升。

Despite the projected decline in some imports, the report emphasized that international markets remain an important complement to China's agricultural supply, as imports of certain products, such as poultry, are expected to rise.

中国农科院农业监测预警研究中心负责人李干琼分析，中东冲突等地缘政治风险加剧，推高全球油价、化肥成本与海运费用，令全球农业生产和贸易的不确定性显著增加。

Li Ganqiong, head of the agricultural monitoring and early-warning research center at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said rising geopolitical risks — including conflict in the Middle East — have pushed up global oil prices, fertilizer costs and shipping expenses, increasing uncertainty in global agricultural production and trade.

他表示，多重外部因素或将加剧全球粮食安全风险，立足国内、稳固农业产能，仍是抵御外部波动、应对不确定性的核心关键。

"These factors could heighten risks to global food security," Li said, adding that strengthening domestic agricultural production remains crucial to coping with external uncertainties.

长远来看，我国粮食产量将保持稳步攀升，2030 年有望达到 7.33 亿吨，2035 年增至 7.53 亿吨；未来十年，全国粮食每公顷单产预计提升 6.3%。

Over the longer term, the report projects that China's grain output will continue to climb steadily, reaching 733 million tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035. Over the next decade, grain yield per hectare is expected to increase 6.3 percent.

粮食消费总量将缓慢增长，预计在 2032 年前后达到 8.42 亿吨峰值，随后进入平稳回落阶段。

Grain consumption is forecast to grow slowly before peaking at 842 million tons around 2032, after which it will stabilize and gradually decline, the report said.

许世卫提到，随着农业生产效能与农产品国际竞争力持续增强，我国主要农产品对外依存度将逐步下降。

As agricultural productivity improves and international competitiveness strengthens, China's reliance on imports of major agricultural commodities is expected to decline, Xu said.

预计到 2035 年，粮食总进口量将降至 1.15 亿吨，较 2023—2025 年均值下降 25.5%；大豆进口量回落至 8255 万吨，降幅 21.5%。

Total grain imports are projected to fall to 115 million tons by 2035, a 25.5 percent drop from the average between 2023 and 2025. Soybean imports are expected to decrease to 82.55 million tons, down 21.5 percent.

乳制品行业将保持稳健扩张，2030 年奶类产量预计达 4507 万吨，2035 年增至 5117 万吨，年均增速维持 2%。

The dairy industry is also expected to expand steadily, with milk production projected to reach 45.07 million tons by 2030 and 51.17 million tons by 2035, growing at an average annual rate of 2 percent.

市场对鲜奶需求持续上升，奶酪、黄油在饮品及烘焙食品中的应用场景也将不断拓宽。

There will be rising demand for fresh milk and increasing use of cheese and butter in beverages and baked goods, according to the report.

此外，未来十年生猪产业将告别粗放式扩张，转向高质量、高效率发展，猪肉产量或将逐步回落。

In addition, pork production is expected to decline gradually over the next decade as the sector shifts from rapid expansion toward higher-quality and more efficient development.

预计 2035 年猪肉产量为 5511 万吨，年均小幅下降 0.5%。

Pork output is projected to reach 55.11 million tons by 2035, down about 0.5 percent annually on average.

据悉，本报告由农业农村部农业市场分析预警团队编制，自 2014 年首次发布以来，已成为研判全国农业发展形势、优化市场预判与农业政策制定的重要参考平台。

The report, compiled by the agricultural market analysis and early-warning team under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, was first launched in 2014 and has become a key platform for assessing the country's agricultural trends and improving market forecasting and policy planning, the ministry said.

- 词汇盘点 -

soybean、forecast、metric ton、commodity、complement、poultry、geopolitical、conflict、competitiveness、expansion

※ soybean ※

Soybean 英/ˈsɔɪbiːn/ 美/ˈsɔɪbiːn/

n. 大豆；黄豆

【例句】

Soybean is one of the most important crops in global agriculture.

大豆是全球农业中最重要的作物之一。

China imports millions of tons of soybean from Brazil and the United States every year.

中国每年从巴西和美国进口数百万吨大豆。

Many vegetarian products are made from soybean protein.

许多素食产品是由大豆蛋白制成的。

※ forecast ※

Forecast 英/ˈfɔːkɑːst/ 美/ˈfɔːrkæst/

n. 预测；预报

v. 预测；预报

【例句】

The weather forecast predicts heavy rain this weekend.

天气预报预测本周末将有大雨。

Economists have revised their economic forecast downward due to inflation.

由于通货膨胀，经济学家已下调了他们的经济预测。

The company forecasts a 15% increase in sales next quarter.

公司预测下季度销售额将增长15%。

※ metric ton ※

Metric ton 英/ˌmetrɪk ˈtʌn/ 美/ˌmetrɪk ˈtʌn/

n. 公吨（等于1,000公斤）

【例句】

The ship is carrying 50,000 metric tons of grain.

这艘船载有5万公吨粮食。

Global wheat production reached a record 780 million metric tons last year.

去年全球小麦产量达到了创纪录的7.8亿公吨。

Each metric ton of steel requires about 1.5 metric tons of iron ore.

每公吨钢材需要约1.5公吨铁矿石。

※ commodity ※

Commodity 英/kəˈmɒdəti/ 美/kəˈmɑːdəti/

n. 商品；日用品；原材料

【例句】

Oil is one of the most traded commodities in the world.

石油是世界上交易最活跃的商品之一。

The prices of agricultural commodities have risen sharply this year.

今年农产品的价格大幅上涨。

Water is becoming an increasingly valuable commodity in many regions.

在许多地区，水正成为一种日益宝贵的商品。

※ complement ※

Complement 英/ˈkɒmplɪment/ 美/ˈkɑːmplɪment/

v. 补充；与……相辅相成

n. 补充物；补足物；补语

【例句】

The wine complements the meal perfectly.

这款酒与这顿饭完美搭配。

The two programs complement each other to provide comprehensive coverage.

这两个项目相互补充，提供全面覆盖。

A full complement of staff is required to run the hospital efficiently.

医院高效运转需要配备齐全的员工。

※ poultry ※

Poultry 英/ˈpəʊltri/ 美/ˈpoʊltri/

n. 家禽；家禽肉

【例句】

Poultry farming is a major industry in this region.

家禽养殖是该地区的主要产业。

The doctor advised her to eat more poultry and less red meat.

医生建议她多吃家禽肉，少吃红肉。

Outbreaks of avian flu have severely affected poultry production.

禽流感爆发严重影响了家禽生产。

※ geopolitical ※

Geopolitical 英/ˌdʒiːəʊpəˈlɪtɪkl/ 美/ˌdʒiːoʊpəˈlɪtɪkl/

adj. 地缘政治的；地理政治学的

【例句】

The geopolitical tensions in the region have affected oil prices.

该地区的地缘政治紧张局势影响了油价。

Companies must consider geopolitical risks when expanding internationally.

企业在国际扩张时必须考虑地缘政治风险。

The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years.

近年来地缘政治格局发生了巨大变化。

※ conflict ※

Conflict 英/ˈkɒnflɪkt/ 美/ˈkɑːnflɪkt/

n. 冲突；矛盾；战争

v. /kənˈflɪkt/ 冲突；抵触

【例句】

The armed conflict has displaced millions of people.

武装冲突已使数百万人流离失所。

There is a conflict between his personal beliefs and his professional duties.

他的个人信仰与职业职责之间存在矛盾。

The two reports conflict with each other on several key points.

这两份报告在几个关键点上相互矛盾。

※ competitiveness ※

Competitiveness 英/kəmˈpetətɪvnəs/ 美/kəmˈpetətɪvnəs/

n. 竞争力；竞争性

【例句】

Improving product quality is essential for enhancing competitiveness.

提高产品质量对于增强竞争力至关重要。

The country has lost competitiveness in the global manufacturing sector.

该国在全球制造业中的竞争力已经下降。

Government policies aim to boost the competitiveness of domestic industries.

政府政策旨在提升国内产业的竞争力。

※ expansion ※

Expansion 英/ɪkˈspænʃn/ 美/ɪkˈspænʃn/

n. 扩张；扩展；膨胀；发展

【例句】

The company announced plans for expansion into Asian markets.

公司宣布了向亚洲市场扩张的计划。

Thermal expansion can cause bridges to warp in extreme heat.

热膨胀可能导致桥梁在极端高温下变形。

The rapid expansion of the city has created housing shortages.

城市的快速扩张造成了住房短缺。

- END -

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