RES推新|中国农业产业链隐含碳排放的复杂网络转移路径与演化模式:基于多节点流量特征的实证分析

1. 基于时间序列的投入产出表与复杂网络理论，构建了涵盖32个部门的中国农业全产业链隐含碳流网络，实现了从宏观总量到微观结构的系统追踪；

2. 揭示了中国农业直接与隐含碳排放的“稳步上升、短暂下降、平台调整”三阶段演化轨迹，发现农业、食品加工、食品制造和化肥生产四个部门汇聚了71.55%的碳排放份额；

3. 解析了内部核心路径：不仅“化肥制造→农业”和“农业→食品加工”构成了稳定的高碳流通道，自2012年起“农药制造→农业”路径的碳转移量也出现显著攀升；

4. 农业产业链上游的碳排放驱动正由传统的石油基燃料向电力主导转变，而下游的碳排放则因消费升级高度集中于造纸及纸制品业。

Against the backdrop of the intertwining challenges of global climate change and agricultural sustainable development, agriculture serves not only as a fundamental industry but also as a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. As a major agricultural nation, China still lacks a clear understanding of the carbon flow processes within its agricultural industrial chain, which hampers the formulation of targeted emission reduction strategies. To systematically reveal the transfer structure and evolutionary patterns of agriculture-related carbon emissions and support the low-carbon transition of the industry in alignment with the “dual carbon” goals, this study develops an integrated “input-output and complex network” coupling framework and conducts an analysis based on six years of input-output tables. Key findings reveal a three-phase evolution of agricultural carbon emissions (growth, peak, and plateau), with 71.55 % of emissions concentrated in four sectors: agriculture, food processing, food manufacturing, and fertilizer production. The construction (S31) and basic chemical raw materials manufacturing (S16) are identified as the primary sectors for embodied carbon inflow, while electricity and heat production and supply (S21) and petroleum and nuclear fuel processing (S15) serve as the core sectors for embodied carbon outflow. Food processing (S5) and specialty chemical products manufacturing (S17) play critical intermediary roles. The “fertilizer manufacturing → agriculture” pathway shows the highest carbon transfer volume, while “agriculture → food processing” remains a stable high-carbon-flow route. The “pesticide manufacturing → agriculture” pathway has intensified significantly since 2012. Notably, the livestock sector achieved reduced embodied carbon transfer despite production scale expansion. At the upstream stage of the industrial chain, agriculture (S1) and the food processing industry (S5) exhibit a clear transition in the carbon emission structure of the high-carbon sectors they drive during production—shifting from reliance on petroleum based fuels toward electricity as the dominant energy source. At the downstream stage, driven by consumption demand from food-related industries, the resulting carbon emissions are highly concentrated in the paper and paper products industry (S29), accounting for more than 80 % of the total. Community detection identifies stable modular structures, revealing the systematic dependencies of embodied carbon flows. The study concludes by proposing enhanced technology adoption and optimized intermediate input management as key policy recom mendations for agricultural carbon mitigation.

在全球气候变化与农业可持续发展交织的挑战背景下，农业不仅是基础产业，也是温室气体排放的重要来源。作为农业大国，中国对其农业产业链内的碳流过程仍缺乏清晰的认识，这阻碍了针对性减排策略的制定。为了系统揭示涉农碳排放的转移结构和演化模式，并支持与“双碳”目标相一致的行业低碳转型，本研究开发了一个集成的“投入产出与复杂网络”耦合框架，并基于六年的投入产出表进行了分析。主要研究结果揭示了农业碳排放的三阶段演化（增长、达峰和平台期），71.55%的排放集中在四个部门：农业、食品加工、食品制造和化肥生产。建筑业（S31）和基础化学原料制造业（S16）被确定为隐含碳流入的主要部门，而电力、热力生产和供应业（S21）以及石油和核燃料加工业（S15）则是隐含碳流出的核心部门。食品加工业（S5）和专用化学产品制造业（S17）发挥着关键的中介作用。“化肥制造→农业”路径的碳转移量最高，而“农业→食品加工”仍然是一条稳定的高碳流路线。自2012年以来，“农药制造→农业”路径显著增强。值得注意的是，尽管生产规模扩大，畜牧业仍实现了隐含碳转移的减少。在产业链的上游阶段，农业（S1）和食品加工业（S5）在生产过程中驱动的高碳部门的碳排放结构呈现出明显的转变——从依赖石油基燃料转向以电力为主要能源。在下游阶段，受食品相关行业消费需求的驱动，由此产生的碳排放高度集中在造纸和纸制品业（S29），占总量的80%以上。社区发现算法识别出稳定的模块化结构，揭示了隐含碳流的系统依赖性。本研究最后提出，加强技术采用和优化中间投入管理是农业碳减排的关键政策建议。

扫码阅读原文

本期编辑

石浩前，南京信息工程大学，博士生

徐志伟，河海大学，硕士生

推荐阅读