JIE | 农业进口冲击如何重塑劳动力市场?基于大豆关税降低的微观证据

Agricultural imports, labor mobility, and welfare
农产品进口、劳动力流动与福利

Author : Guanzu Ding, Haichao Fan, Rui Li, Huanhuan Wang, Xican Xi

摘要

利用家庭和企业层面的微观数据，本文研究了农产品进口关税下降对劳动力重新配置、结构转型及总体福利的影响。

主要发现如下：

• • 农业部门的调整：大豆进口关税的降低减少了农业劳动力的投入和产出，但同时提高了农业生产效率。
• • 劳动力跨部门重配：这一冲击促使大量低技能劳动力向制造业转移，扩大了制造业企业的就业规模，但降低了企业层面的生产率，同时加剧了城市低技能劳动力市场的竞争。
• • 福利损失与政策协调：定量分析表明，该冲击导致了小幅的总体福利损失，且在不同部门、地区和技能群体间存在显著的异质性。重要的是，降低劳动力迁移成本可以大幅缓解这种福利损失，凸显了将贸易自由化与国内劳动力市场改革相协调的必要性。
• • 结构转型驱动力对比：在比较结构转型的驱动力时，研究发现农产品进口自由化（“推力”）是劳动力重新配置的重要驱动因素，而制造业出口扩张（“拉力”）则是实现福利增长的唯一来源。

Abstract

Using household- and firm-level data, we show that reductions in soybean tariffs lowered agricultural labor input and output, and improved agricultural efficiency. The shock induced a large reallocation of low-skilled labor into manufacturing, expanding firms’ employment but reducing firm-level productivity, while intensifying competition in urban low-skilled labor markets. Our quantitative analysis implies a small aggregate welfare loss, with substantial heterogeneity across sectors, regions, and skill groups. Importantly, lowering migration costs can substantially mitigate this welfare loss, highlighting the need to coordinate trade liberalization with domestic labor-market reforms. Comparing forces behind structural transformation, we find that agricultural import liberalization (“push”) was an important driver for labor reallocation, whereas manufacturing export expansion (“pull”) was the sole source of welfare gains.

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