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NS|农业劳动力可能是未来耕地供应的潜在瓶颈

  • 2026-06-22 03:27:07
NS|农业劳动力可能是未来耕地供应的潜在瓶颈
摘要：全球耕地面积历来呈扩张趋势，随着全球粮食需求预计增长，这一趋势还将继续。然而，耕地弃耕现象也在持续发生，劳动力短缺被认为是造成这一现象的主要因素之一。本文论证了农业劳动力将成为耕地可用性及其未来变化的主要制约因素，与目前考虑的环境制约因素相辅相成。基于历史轨迹，本研究预测，劳动力制约因素的引入将进一步抵消未来耕地可用性的变化。尽管无需进一步侵占自然区域即可满足全球耕地需求，但在广泛认可的共享社会经济路径和代表性集中路径（SSP-RCP）情景及其假设下，受劳动力制约的耕地可用性与耕地利用率之间仍然存在区域差异。这些差距表明，需要制定有针对性的政策，支持劳动力发展、农业部门的技术创新以及移民流入，以维持预期的耕地利用水平。
主要结果：

图 1：与 2017 年相比，预测的 CLP 和 CLD 的比较，以及两个 CLP 约束。

图 2：2030 年和 2100 年预计 CLP 与 CLD 的区域或国家比率。

图 3：约束转换 CLP E到 CLP W的全局分布和累积的 CLP 不匹配。

图 4：CLP 在就业、土地分配限制和全球生产者份额方面的背景。

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  139. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/runtime/temp/32b793ebdcbdb96aeb8bb24c123b0bef.php ( 11.98 KB )
  140. /yingpanguazai/ssd/ssd1/www/h.mffb.com.cn/vendor/topthink/think-trace/src/Html.php ( 4.42 KB )
  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000907s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=h_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001421s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000669s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000689s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.001436s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000672s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.001449s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 551863 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.037633s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1782077421 WHERE `id` = 551863 [ RunTime:0.001494s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.001063s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 551863 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.002313s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 551863 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006547s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 551863 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.043712s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 551863 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.011250s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 551863 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.038105s ]
0.328666s